"It is fraught with a serious crisis": in Scotland announced their intention to hold a new referendum on independence

Edinburgh plans to hold a second referendum on the independence of Scotland - the Scottish government published the corresponding bill the day before. It is assumed that a new vote on secession from the United Kingdom may take place until 2021. According to the first minister of Scotland and the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nikola Sturgeon, this will give the region the opportunity to become an independent European state. It is assumed that the Scottish Parliament will consider the document before the end of the current calendar year, but if the situation changes, the passage of the bill can be accelerated, reports The Guardian.

• Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgen
• Reuters
• © Russell Cheyne

The bill does not indicate the date of the possible holding of a referendum, which may be established additionally.

“We will seek a consensus on the timely transfer of authority in order to ensure a referendum on the issue of independence, which by all means should be held later with the current parliament,” said Nicola Sturgen. “It is extremely important that the UK government understands that attempts to prevent such a referendum from being held will be regarded as a violation of the principles of democracy.”

"A chance for supporters of independence"

According to the Scottish Minister, for a long time, the UK has neglected the interests of Edinburgh.

“Throughout the process, Westminster treated Scotland with disdain. Our attempts to find a compromise and protect the interests of the people of Scotland, who mostly voted against withdrawing from the EU, were ignored, ”Nicola Sturgeon said.

As the Scottish Minister for Brexit Michael Russell recalled, in the manifesto with which SNP won the 2016 parliamentary elections, Edinburgh’s right to hold another referendum if the circumstances of the period of 2014 (then the country's first plebiscite of independence was held) will change significantly - for example, if there is a question about the withdrawal of Scotland from the EU against its will. According to Michael Russell, if the new Prime Minister of Great Britain tries to implement the Brexit option without a deal, while the Scottish side seeks to stop this development and mitigate a tough scenario, this will be another proof that the situation meets the conditions outlined in the 2016 manifesto. of the year.

• SNP supporters rally
• Reuters
• © Russell Cheyne

Russell said that the Scottish government intends to hold a referendum on the model used during the elections to the local government and the Parliament of Scotland - in this case, citizens of the EU and persons aged 16 and 17 may participate in the voting.

“In the future, this right will be supplemented and expanded. I have already stated before that I intend to extend the right to vote in the elections to the Scottish Parliament and local governments to all persons legally residing in Scotland, regardless of their citizenship. These proposals will be submitted soon, ”the Brexit Minister said in a statement.

The SNP’s efforts to organize a new referendum coincided with the UK government crisis. Recall, May 24, the British Prime Minister announced his resignation. Teresa May will continue to fulfill the duties of the head of the Cabinet until her successor is chosen, but she will leave the post of leader of the Conservative Party on June 7. The reason for this step was the situation with brexit - Teresa May was not able to hold an agreement with the EU on the terms of the exit through parliament. Moreover, the Prime Minister faced resistance even in her own cabinet while discussing a possible compromise.

• Theresa May Announces Her Early Resignation
• Reuters
• © Simon Dawson

“I feel and will feel a deep regret that I did not succeed in making brexite. Finding a way to show respect for the results of the referendum will have my successor, ”said May.

The election of the new party leader and the prime minister will begin on June 10, but it is unlikely that the new head of the ruling Conservative Party will support the Scottish initiative to hold the next plebiscite of independence. According to The Guardian, the candidates for prime minister Rory Stewart and Sajid Javid have already voted against the referendum.

However, according to analysts, London will not be able to prevent Edinburg from holding a new vote.

“The idea of ​​a second referendum has been around for a long time; it cannot be said that its actualization is directly connected with the weakening of the British government. The Scots had the right to a referendum, and once they exercised this right, ”Alexander Tevda-Burmuli, an associate professor at the Department of European Integration at MGIMO, explained in an interview with RT.

At the same time, the head of the European Security Department of the Institute of Europe, RAS, Dmitry Danilov, admits that the British parliament may block the initiative of Edinburgh to hold a repeated plebiscite on Scottish independence.

“The British understand that Brexit is not only a step towards secession from the EU, but also towards disintegration of the United Kingdom. They cannot follow this path. The political class in Britain today is disorganized and disoriented, the disunity is very great. At first it seems that this may be a chance for supporters of Scottish independence. But in fact, the reverse process of internal consolidation is taking place inside British politicians, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.

Brexit issue

Scotland has been striving for full autonomy for a very long time, and the discovery of oil deposits on the Scotland shelf has become a serious argument for supporters of independence. In the 1970s, Edinburgh won the right to hold a referendum on creating its own parliament and expanding the powers of local authorities. However, then this initiative failed, and Edinburgh returned to the question of parliament two decades later. In 1999, Scotland received its own legislative body and the right to partially regulate tax charges. At the same time, the popularity of the Scottish National Party, formed in the 1930s, grew in the region. She has consistently advocated the independence of the state.

In 2007, this political force managed to form a regional government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and already at the next election the party won a majority in the local parliament.

The first referendum on independence was held in Scotland in the fall of 2014. Then the citizens of Great Britain and the EU, residing on Scottish territory, spoke in favor of preserving the old order - 55.3% of the participants of the plebiscite voted for the region to remain part of the United Kingdom.

One of the arguments of opponents of the Scottish autonomy was the possible loss of the country's membership in the European Union. As stated then at the European Commission, if Scotland acquires state sovereignty, it will automatically leave the EU and be forced to go through the process of joining the European Union from scratch. At the same time, there are no guarantees of return - integration, for example, can be blocked by countries that fear in this way encourage separatist movements in other EU regions. As the President of the European Commission emphasized in 2014 (then Jose Manuel Barroso held this post), the new country separated from the EU member state will “be extremely difficult, if not impossible,” to gain recognition in the European Union.

Brexit has become a new incentive for Scottish supporters of independence - the UK’s decision to leave the EU nullifies the Scottish fears of remaining outside the union, experts say. During the Brexit referendum, most Scotland residents spoke out against the initiative of the British Conservatives.

Commenting on the results of the voting, Nikola Sturgen said that the referendum "made it clear that the people of Scotland see their future in the EU." According to the politician, due to possible brexit, many Scotland residents who voted against separation from the UK in 2014 could change their point of view. Therefore, we need a new referendum on independence, we are confident in the SNP.

In March 2017, the Scottish Parliament voted for a new plebiscite — it was assumed that Scotland should leave the United Kingdom before Brexit. However, this initiative has not been implemented.

The results of the recent elections to the European Parliament, in which the SNP won almost 38% of the votes of the Scottish voters (this corresponds to the three mandates in the EP), again inspired supporters of independence.

“Scotland once again rejected brexit,” said SNP leader Nikola Sturgeon, commenting on the election results.

According to Alexander Tevda-Burmuli, the most likely option after May’s resignation for the United Kingdom remains precisely “tough” brexit, with an almost complete break of trade and economic ties with the EU.

“The Scots categorically disagree with this option, and in Scotland the mood has again increased in favor of holding a referendum on withdrawal,” Tevda-Burmuli explained.

Dmitry Danilov agrees that it was Brexit who pushed the SNP to the idea of ​​a repeated referendum.

"The Scots voted during the Brexit referendum for the preservation of EU membership, and now they can say that they are not on the way with the UK," the expert explained.

“No consensus”

The results of the polls show that most Scotland residents would prefer to secede from the UK to “hard” Brexit without a deal, which can be done by conservatives in the fall. According to a survey by the sociological service Panelbase, published by The Sunday Times newspaper, 59% of respondents prefer independence to “hard” Brexit. However, a number of survey participants (53%) were in favor of Scotland remaining in the UK.

Earlier, the sociological service YouGov published the results of a poll, according to which 49% of the inhabitants of Scotland are ready to vote for independence. It is noted that in June last year there were fewer supporters of secession from the UK - 45%.

However, it is worth noting that the results of research are sometimes very contradictory: according to the same YouGov, 53% of local respondents are against the new referendum on independence.

That is why the Scottish government is in no hurry to announce the next plebiscite, acting in this direction with extreme caution, experts say.

• Rally for the independence of Scotland in the suburb of Edinburgh September 18, 2014
• © LESLEY MARTIN / AFP

“There is no consensus on the issue of secession from the United Kingdom in Scotland, although there are chances that people will vote for independence,” Tevda-Burmuli said. “But the SNP does not want to take the risk and intends to wait for the fall, when there will be some clarity on the issue of brexit.” In the event that the British Cabinet is headed by someone like Boris Johnson, such a government could collapse. If Laborites come to power in early elections, the whole idea of ​​Brexit will hang in the balance. Therefore, the Scots are not forcing events. ”

According to Dmitry Danilov, there is a risk that the initiative to re-referendum in Scotland will cause another political crisis. The expert recalled the situation in Spain, when Catalonia held a referendum on independence against the will of Madrid. This example suggests that legal restrictions may not always guarantee the stability of the situation.

“We can expect increased domestic political initiatives in Scotland, and not only in it. There is also the problem of Northern Ireland. Obviously, the requirements for a second referendum and efforts in this direction from Scotland will increase, and the British side will slow down this process. A clash of these opposing motivations is fraught with a serious crisis, ”summed up Danilov.