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Ukraine: a referendum on peace with Russia?

Barely invested sixth independent Ukrainian president, comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy made stopping fighting in the East a priority. The war between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian and Russian troops has been raging there since 2014. According to the UN, it has already claimed the lives of more than 13,000 people. The desire for peace is palpable in Ukraine. But the solution of President Zelenskiy is debate: he proposes to validate peace with Russia by a referendum. Where did the idea for the new president come from?

From our correspondent in Kiev,

Volodymyr Zelenskiy had repeated it during his election campaign: he likes referendums. To validate the reform of justice, health, or other fundamental changes, he wants to " listen to everyone's opinion ," as he explained. So that it is not the president or the government that decides but the people. That being said, the president said the referendum would be advisory and non-binding.

There are very pragmatic reasons for this choice to hold a referendum: in the last five years, several legislative measures necessary for the reactivation of the Minsk peace negotiations have been blocked in Parliament. Volodymyr Zelenskiy does not yet have a group of deputies. He seeks to bypass parliamentarians with this statement, but also to comfort his electorate: remember that he is still campaigning, this time for early parliamentary elections in July.

The initiative, even consultative, is far from unanimous

Several personalities have denounced the initiative as the best way to capitulate to Russia. Proposing to adopt a complex and very fragile peace treaty with a "yes" or "no" question is dangerous and irresponsible, according to one of Volodymyr Zelenskiy's opponents. War veterans have already announced their opposition to the idea. And we know that this kind of opposition can be muscular.

There is also a legal constraint: the law on the organization of a referendum was declared unconstitutional in 2018. So, it is necessary to wait for the election of a new Parliament, which votes a new law, to organize a referendum. If Volodymyr Zelenskiy still wants it by then.

Because the political value of a referendum is very uncertain for the president. Imagine voters reject his proposal for peace. Remember that in Colombia in October 2016 , a small majority of voters was enough to invalidate four years of difficult negotiations. In Ukraine, the president would have trouble recovering.

What does Russia think of its proposal?

Even if he wins the referendum, Volodymyr Zelenskiy could not make peace alone, as the proverb says. For the Kremlin, the proposal does not even have to be, because Ukraine and Russia are not at war officially. Recall that Vladimir Putin denies any interference in Ukraine, despite evidence that is now indisputable. So for Moscow, the referendum is a strictly domestic affair for Ukraine.

The Kremlin has also imposed a new set of trade and energy sanctions on Ukraine just before the election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as a way of emphasizing that he is not ready for negotiations. This is a test for the new president and also a sign that peace is not for tomorrow.

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