The third round of the Russian Football Championship promises to be extremely interesting. In Moscow, CSKA and Lokomotiv will sort things out, and in St. Petersburg, Zenit will face off against Dynamo. The capital derby has a slightly louder sign, but the second match is no less interesting. And not only because of the long history of confrontation between the teams, but also because of the fact that it is extremely difficult to predict its outcome. Despite the long-term dominance of St. Petersburg in the RPL and their series without defeats in games with the blue and white in the championship, numbering five meetings.
Yes, bookmakers may well disagree with this. On the eve of the tour, many offices call Zenit a clear favorite and do not really believe not only in the victory of Dynamo, but also in a draw. There are reasons for this. In the first three matches of the season in all tournaments, Marcel Lichka's wards conceded a total of seven goals and could not win a single victory. Moreover, after the defeat from Krasnodar, their paths crossed, albeit with strong, but middle peasants - Pari NN and Krylia Sovetov. But with both of them they played a draw in regular time, and Nizhny Novgorod also lost in a penalty shootout.
Of course, we should not forget about a number of factors that partially explain the current difficulties of Dynamo. As one of the leaders of the team, Daniil Fomin, admitted, the past training camp was one of the most difficult in his career, and Match TV commentator Dmitry Derunets said that after training, some players remained at the base due to fatigue, simply not having the strength to get home.
Perhaps the high level of loads influenced the performance of the blue and white in the opening meetings. If in the match with Krasnodar they still looked relatively good in the second half and even managed to avoid a major defeat, then with the Wings they noticeably got hooked in the end and missed the victory. After the break, the guests led 3-1, but from the 74th minute they conceded twice and were content with one point.
However, you should not blame everything solely on hard training and being under stress. Dynamo have recently met a new head coach and are just beginning to adapt to the new requirements and style of play of Lichka, which are strikingly different from those of Slavisa Jokanovic. Muscovites are again trying to act as the first number and demonstrate bright football. Let them not yet boast of either high pressure or a large number of shots on goal, which they stood out against the background of competitors during the work of Sandro Schwarz.
Nevertheless, such an abrupt transition from one model to another exposed Dynamo's problems in defense. Under Jokanovic, they were not so noticeable, because the team did not try to play so adventurously, but in the first meetings under the leadership of Lichka, they became visible to the naked eye. And in many ways, the difficulties are associated with not the highest level of performers in the defensive line.
Roberto Fernandez and Nicolas Marichal are clearly not up to the level of the team - a contender for RPL gold, and even experienced players make mistakes out of the blue. In the first round, Eli Dasa was noted, and in the second - the same Fomin and Vyacheslav Grulev. The midfielder presented the ball to the opponent and provoked the first goal against Anton Shunin, and the striker played with his hand in the penalty area and allowed Benjamin Garra to restore parity with a penalty kick.
It will be difficult to solve these problems in the short term. So far, it seems that Dynamo have two options for getting out of the situation: to acquire better partners for Fabian Balbuena or to shift the focus towards defense, trying to act a little more reliably. But there are no rumors about the purchase of star newcomers yet, and the second way contradicts the precepts of Lichka himself, who declared his unwillingness to deviate from his philosophy and give up his principles.
Perhaps the Czech will be able to make the protection more reliable without such tricks, but this will take time. And Muscovites have very little of it. Lichka's position is complicated by an extremely difficult calendar - and it's not just about the confrontation with Zenit. Until the end of August, his wards will face off against Baltika, CSKA, Krasnodar and Spartak (with the last two in the Russian Cup) and so far they can only be called favorites in one of the upcoming meetings.
Thus, in a certain scenario, by the end of the month they can have only four points in the RPL and three consecutive defeats in the Cup, which may well deprive the team of a chance to continue the fight in the tournament. In this case, Lichka runs the risk of not working at the club for two months and thereby setting an anti-record. With the exception of acting coaches, in Russian history, none of the Dynamo coaches was fired so quickly. And although after the meeting with Zenit it is not worth waiting for his resignation, it is this match that can mark the beginning of the end of his stay at the helm of the blue and white.
But if four or five months ago the outcome of the match between Zenit and Dynamo, which is in a disassembled state, would have seemed to be a done deal, now there is intrigue in it. After all, the Petersburgers themselves are still demonstrating far from the football that fans and experts expected from them. Although it may seem that they have nothing to complain about. The wards of Sergei Semak have already managed to win the Russian Super Cup, defeat Akhmat in the Cup, and also score four points in the championship, stumbling a little only in a meeting with Rostov.
But if you dig deeper, everything is not so rosy. "Zenith" frankly "rebounded" in the game with CSKA, where the nominal hosts never hit the target before the penalty shootout. "Paris NN" blue-white-blue scored only after Viktor Alexandrov was sent off under very controversial circumstances, and with "Rostov" they more than twice lost on shots (6:13), only hit the target once and created only 0.82 expected goals (xG), while the opponent stopped at around 1.3. Relatively confidently, the blue-white-blue dealt only with Akhmat, but even there they allowed the Grozny team to make nine shots on the goal of Alexander Vasyutin (the same number in their assets).
And although the reigning champions of the country continue to regularly score points, they are not at all like the dominant team. Embarrassing as the lack of sharpness in the attack, and unusual for St. Petersburg lack of personnel. They have already lost their main star and top scorer of the past season, Malcolm, and in the near future they may lose Wendel and Claudinho, who will be very difficult to find an equivalent replacement for them in the current conditions. And even though the cost of the composition of "Zenith" is still completely superior to all competitors, it no longer seems so deep.
Due to the loss of Malcolm, there was a deficit on the right edge of the attack, where Zelimkhan Bakayev and Alexei Sutormin can come out - quality performers, but not at the level of a star Brazilian. And Wendel's absence left virtually no alternatives in the midfield. Yes, the trio with Wilmar Barrios and Claudinho can be formed by Du Queiroz, but what about strengthening from the bench? There are only 19-year-old Alexander Kovalenko and team veteran Alexander Erokhin, who played a total of 632 minutes in all tournaments in the last competitive year.
Undoubtedly, before the transfer window closes, Zenit will try to strengthen. For the same Malcolm, € 60 million was raised - colossal funds that can be used to equip not only the attacker, but also the middle line. But even if newcomers arrive in the near future, it will take time to integrate them into the system. And by this time, St. Petersburg residents risk letting go of their main competitors. And then it may not be so easy to win back the gap.
In light of this, the next few weeks may be extremely important for Semak, whose contribution to the success of the blue-white-blue is still questioned by many colleagues and experts. According to former Dynamo coach Miodrag Bozovic, it is enough for any Zenit coach not to spoil everything in order to take first place. In a similar vein, the ex-midfielder of Celta Alexander Mostovoy spoke. In his opinion, with the conditional "Ural" he would not have been able to achieve great results and would have taken eighth or tenth place in the RPL.
Therefore, it is now important whether Semak will be able to rebuild the team as soon as possible and avoid a crisis in the absence of the sold Malcom and Wendel, who has only recently returned to Russia. Of course, the main test will be the derby of the two capitals with Spartak in the fifth round, but it will be possible to draw some intermediate conclusions after the match with Dynamo. And if Zenit loses points, then the specialist and his wards risk being under a barrage of criticism. And in stressful conditions, they have not worked for a long time.