ECOWAS summit in Abuja announced the formation of a presidential committee to negotiate with the ruling military junta in Niger (Anadolu Agency)

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has long reiterated its opposition to Niger's coup on July 26, 2023 and promised military intervention to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

Five months after the coup, the economic group found itself in front of something embodied in reality, supported by the ocean, and dealt with abroad, so it reviewed the ceiling of demands, and issued on December 5 / December a statement announcing its recognition of the coup, and that Bazoum is no longer president of the country, and formed a presidential committee to negotiate with the military council in Niamey.

In the following report, we try to identify the reasons that led to this decline:

America's Interests

The United States adopted a different position from ECOWAS, opposing military intervention, because it considers stability in Niger a key factor for the sustainability of its expansion in the region, as it has a large base in the Agadez region on the borders with Algeria and Libya.

It is a pivotal base in the Sahel region, which is classified as a hotbed for militants and armed insurgency, with 1000,100 soldiers, which cost $30 million to build and $<> million to maintain annually.

Immediately after the military coup in Niger, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 27 that the United States stood with the Nigerien people.

In remarks to the international press on August 8, Blinken said that a diplomatic solution is the best way to get the Niger crisis.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said President Joe Biden's administration was committed to a diplomatic solution because Niger was a partner the United States did not want to lose.

Russia is a friend of the new rulers

As for Russia, whose flags were carried in pro-coup rallies and chanted slogans welcoming it in the region, any attempt at a military solution would be countered by its allies in Mali and Burkina Faso.

In response to ECOWAS' decision to assemble its reserve forces for a military operation in Niger, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned against military intervention and said it would lead to a long-term confrontation.

On August 11, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that a military intervention would destabilize the entire Sahel region.

Algerian veto

From the first moments of the coup, Algeria, which shares a border of up to 1000,<> kilometers with Niger, has expressed its opposition to any military intervention, as it would cause displacement and security deterioration towards its borders.

On August 29, Algeria announced a political plan based on rejecting military intervention and giving the putschists six months.

President Abdelmadjid Tebboune instructed Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf to travel to Niamey to consult with those concerned, and although the military council rejected the proposed transitional period, Algeria was the first to publicly oppose military intervention.

The fading of French influence

The Niger crisis showed that France no longer retained its influence in this volatile region of Africa.

Paris has vowed to reinstate Bazoum and has entered into direct antagonism with the putschists.

Instead of imposing its position, its influence in Niger has faded with the expulsion of its ambassador from Niamey and the cancellation of his diplomatic visas on August 29, 2023, and the departure of its troops, which will be completed on December 22.

Union of putschists

On September 17, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed the "Pact of Leptago-Gourma", the founding of the alliance of the three Sahel states, which aims to create a joint defense structure between these three countries.

Mali and Burkina had earlier declared their stand with Niger in the face of ECOWAS threats, calling any attack on Niger an attack on them.

This means that the war will not be against one country, but against a group of countries, led by Mali, whose army ranks third in the ECOWAS armies, and Burkina Faso, whose army ranks fifth among the armies of the group, and has many local support movements that support the armed forces.

These countries have in common the fact that they witnessed successive coups, the first in Mali in 2021, the second in Burkina Faso in 2022 and the third coup in Niger in 2023, and the three countries raised the slogan of hostility with their former colony France.

Fears of collapse

Suddenly, the economic community found itself facing a major challenge, as Guinea and the member states of the New Sahel Alliance threatened the possibility of withdrawing from ECOWAS.

The new Sahel alliance has declared that the economic organization needs legitimacy and restructuring.

While Nigeria, ECOWAS's most influential country, is reticent to intervene militarily and proposes a transition period of no more than two years, Senegal and Benin are showing hardline positions in support of a military solution.

Senegalese President Macky Sall and Ivorian leader Hassan Ouattara were absent from the Nigeria summit in Abuja on December 10 due to the trend towards de-escalation with the military.

Closing the curtain on the crisis

In the final communiqué of the ECOWAS summit held in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, it was announced that a presidential committee would be formed to negotiate with Niger's ruling military junta.

The Commission is composed of the Chairs of Togo, Sierra Leone and Benin, and its objective is to arrive at a short-term transitional road map and work for the speedy restoration of constitutional order.

If the presidential committee reaches positive results, sanctions on Niger will be gradually eased, ECOWAS said, adding that if talks with the junta do not produce solutions and results, sanctions will remain in place with the possibility of military intervention.

On Friday evening, Togolese Foreign Minister Robert Dossé arrived in Niamey in his capacity as the personal representative of Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé, who mediates between the junta and ECOWAS.

Togo's chief diplomat said he had agreed in principle with Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zein on the content and timing of the transitional phase, and would convey the axes of the agreement to the committee mandated by the Economic Community.

Dossey added that he would return to Niamey in January with his Sierra Leonean counterpart.

The Republic of Togo is one of the countries that support the positions of the military junta in Niamey, and General Abderrahmane Tiani had previously visited it before the Abuja summit, and discussed with President Gnassingbé ways to lift sanctions on his country.

On Friday, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Fei arrived in Niamey and said the United States was ready to resume cooperation with Niger provided the military committed a short period and organized democratic elections leading to the handover of power to civilians.

The United States is the most powerful external actor in Niger by virtue of its deployed forces and its major base in Agadez, especially after the departure of French troops and the suspension of security and military cooperation with the European Union.

In the same context, the new US ambassador-designate to Niger presented her credentials to the head of the military council, General Abderrahmane Tiani, which means recognition of the military government.

Source : Al Jazeera