Romain Rouillard / Photo credit: MOIRENC CAMILLE / HEMIS.FR / HEMIS.FR / HEMIS VIA AFP 18:13 p.m., December 01, 2023

Now the only candidate in the running, France appears to be the overwhelming favorite to organize the 2030 Winter Olympics. The events would take place in the Alps, where 95% of the venues are already in place. But at a time of global warming, the amount of snow available is at the heart of the questions.

Six years after Paris-2024, the Olympic rings could once again be established in France. Barring an unlikely turnaround, France will host the 2030 edition of the Winter Olympics. More precisely, the French Alps, the only bid selected by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), while Switzerland and Sweden were also in the running. A news that delighted as much as it made people jump.

Several opponents of the return of the Games to French soil have raised ecological arguments, fearing, among other things, the use of artificial snow. "70% of freshwater resources are in glaciers, they are melting before our eyes and we are going to invest in Games to make artificial snow while we are not sure that there will be snow in 2030," said Fabienne Grébert, regional councillor and president of the Ecologists in the Auvergne Rhône-Alpes region. at the microphone of Franceinfo.

"It is clear that there will be less snow than today"

On the other hand, David Lappartient, president of the French National Olympic and Sports Committee, was resolutely more optimistic, assuring Franceinfo that there would be "snow, mostly natural snow". However, this was far from being the case during the last Winter Games held in February 2022 in Beijing, where 365 artificial snow cannons were running at full speed to ensure the smooth running of the event. In view of the climate trend, should we fear a similar process during this future French Olympiad?

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In 2021, a study published in the scientific journal The Cryosphere pointed out that the duration of snow cover had decreased by almost a month over the last 50 years, particularly at low and medium altitudes. "As far as the Alps are concerned, we know that we lose about a month of snow cover each winter per degree of warming at around 1,500m above sea level. This warming will certainly be around 1.5 degrees by 2030. So it's clear that there will be less snow than today," explains Françoise Vimeux, a climatologist at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD).

"Seven years is not a very long time"

In general, most experts confirm the scenario of a gradual decrease in the amount of snow available by the end of the century. "However, seven years is not a very long time on a scale that goes up to 2100," said Nathalie Huret, a university professor of atmospheric physical chemistry. "And in France, we have glaciers that, even if they are shrinking, still provide a low-temperature layer that allows snow to be preserved," she adds.

However, these glaciers are not eternal, says Françoise Vimeux, a climatologist at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. "We know that, within 15 years, glaciers that are at altitudes below 4,000m in the Alps will, a priori, have disappeared. Every 1kg of CO2 is emitted, 15kg of glaciers disappear around the world."

Decisive meteorological parameters

The success of these winter games will also depend on many factors that are difficult, if not impossible, to predict at the moment. "If you look at last year, for example, there was snow everywhere during Christmas week. And then, between Christmas and New Year's, a heat wave came and it was 0 degrees at 2,000m above sea level. So everything underneath was starting to melt," says Nathalie Huret. Such weather conditions in February 2030 would necessarily lead the organisers to use artificial snow, thus weakening the objective of an environmentally friendly Olympiad.

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Nevertheless, if temperatures are bound to rise by 2100, "this does not mean that, locally, there will not be cold spells", adds Nathalie Huret, also recalling that "even in the 1980s, we had winters with less snow". Holding the event in the Alps was the best option, she said. "If they organised this in the Jura or Auvergne, I'd say they're crazy. But in the Alps, between the glaciers and the high altitude... I just hope they have routes that are high enough to prevent risks." For the time being, the resorts of Courchevel, Méribel and Val d'Isère have been selected to host the Alpine ski centre.