Europe 1 with AFP / Photo credit: ANTHONY BRZESKI / AFP 18:02 p.m., November 27, 2023, modified at 18:03 p.m., November 27, 2023

According to a study published on Monday, episodes of very heavy rainfall, which can lead to catastrophic flooding, are becoming more frequent and intense as the planet warms, more than predicted. The study states that scientists underestimated the increase in extreme precipitation.

Episodes of very heavy rainfall, which can lead to catastrophic flooding, are becoming more frequent and intense as the planet warms, more so than previously predicted, according to a study published Monday. To anticipate the consequences of climate change, scientists are using climate models, but according to this new study, these have underestimated the increase in extreme precipitation.

"Society needs to be prepared"

The work suggests that the consequences "could be much worse than we thought," Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which led the study, said in a statement. "Extreme rainfall will be heavier and more frequent. Society needs to be prepared," he added. The largest increases in precipitation will occur in tropical regions and high latitudes, such as Southeast Asia and northern Canada, according to the study. This is due to the fact that hot air can contain more water vapour.

>> ALSO READ – The world is on a catastrophic warming trajectory of 2.5 to 2.9°C by 2100, warns the UN

Floods are particularly costly disasters, resulting in significant loss of life and economic life. This warning is published in the "Journal of Climate", a few days before the opening of COP28, the annual international climate meeting under the aegis of the UN. For their work, the researchers compared simulations from numerous climate models with changes observed historically. They used techniques that allowed them to filter out which changes are or are not related to human greenhouse gas emissions.

"Our study confirms that the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall increases exponentially with each increase in global warming," said Max Kotz, lead author of the study. According to the authors, these analyses show that it is the increase in temperatures that affects these changes the most, and not other factors such as winds. "The good news is that it makes it easier to predict the future of extreme rainfall," Levermann said. "The bad news is: It's going to get worse if we continue to push global warming by emitting greenhouse gases."