Families of Israeli prisoners in the Palestinian resistance continue to pressure the occupation government (Reuters)
JERUSALEM – Despite the Israeli consensus on the need to free all detainees held by the resistance in the Gaza Strip, military analysts' estimates differed regarding the mechanisms and the conduct and developments of the war, amid assurances that the truce will have repercussions on the declared Israeli goals of the war.
As the truce entered its second day, Israeli military analysts unanimously assessed that the temporary ceasefire was a victory for Hamas and a setback and undermining Israel's stated goals regarding the war, in line with the assessments of political analysts who stressed that the deal is binding, due to the "moral duty" towards the detainees in the Gaza Strip, and most importantly because of the failure of Benjamin Netanyahu's government to free them.
Political analyses agreed that Israel does not receive prisoners with joy and feelings of victory or achievement, but rather receives them silently and with mixed feelings, which reflects the loss suffered by the political level to Hamas, in light of the fact that it was forced to accept a prisoner exchange deal after the failure of ground military operations to free them.
The truce has grabbed Israeli headlines amid discrepancies over its mechanisms and the course and developments of the war (Al Jazeera)
"We receive them silently"
Under the headline "We receive them in silence," Yedioth Ahronoth political analyst Nahum Barnea wrote an article in which he pointed out that the war reached its peak as it entered its eighth week and the temporary ceasefire came into effect.
"The war on Gaza was fought by the Israeli army without restrictions, but when the ceasefire begins, many questions will be asked: where is it heading, for how long, what are we doing here?, and the word shuffle that terrifies the political level and the army will return to the Israeli discourse," he said.
Behind the show of unity in the joint rounds and press briefings of the War Council, Barnea said, "There are bitter and hidden differences and discussions, the exchange deal was reluctantly accepted, the military operations did not achieve their goals or any achievement, and the return of some of the detainees was done through the acceptance of the exchange deal and the approval of the temporary truce."
He explained that "there is no place for beating the drums of victory" because of the first phase of the exchange deal, noting that the messages that Netanyahu sought to promote as if Israel had achieved a great achievement in the negotiations, are a claim "far from the truth," adding, "Netanyahu prefers to bury his head in the sand, as just discussing the issue of a ceasefire exposes his government to the risk of disintegration and collapse."
A major political analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth titled "We Receive Them in Silence" (Al Jazeera)
Political concessions
Haaretz Arab and Middle Eastern affairs analyst Zvi Barel echoed the same proposition, who believes that the swap deal could be an "insurance policy" for Hamas leaders from Netanyahu's assassinations, noting that Qatar's mediation in talks with Israel has made clear its strategic importance.
Underscoring the decline shown by the political echelon and its acceptance of Hamas's demands, there was the most interesting part of the briefings by political parties in Israel that Israel agreed to move its military forces away from Salah al-Din Street, the central axis connecting northern Gaza to the southern Strip. This is the only crossing route for thousands of displaced people from the northern Gaza Strip."
Unlike what happened after the truce actually began, Barel said that Israel agreed not to approach and attack the displaced and residents who will pass on the road, even if they are moving north, during the days of the truce, adding that this "raises fears that Hamas members will move freely during the truce period, and their movement without interruption between the two parts of the Gaza Strip."
He pointed out that the terms of the truce agreement illustrate the difficult dilemmas facing Israel, especially with regard to the nature and duration of the ceasefire, as well as fears that the truce will give Hamas an additional period of time to organize its forces, noting that the return of the bodies of Israeli detainees has not yet been discussed.
Haaretz analyst Zvi Barel pointed to political concessions to the occupation government (Al Jazeera)
Difficult days await Israel
For his part, Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel believes that the return of some of the detainees will not lead to a burst of joy in Israeli society, pointing out that difficult days await Israel related to the continuation of negotiations to free more detainees, as well as the course of the war and its developments in light of the temporary ceasefire, and how this will be reflected in the future on the battle for the ground incursion into the southern Gaza Strip.
The military analyst explained that there are still many obstacles in the way despite the temporary truce and the first phase of the exchange deal, as the Israeli side has not resolved issues related to the declared goals of the war to destroy Hamas' rule and military capabilities, and to free all Israeli detainees.
He pointed out that Hamas and Palestinian factions are still holding large numbers of Israeli civilians as well as military personnel, and therefore they will continue other maneuvers of war, and will also escalate psychological warfare directed against the Israeli public in order to reach a comprehensive exchange deal and end the war.
Haaretz political analyst Amor Harel talks about the "bad days" that await Israel (Al Jazeera)
Tug the rope to the end
On the military side, Yoav Lemur, a military analyst at Israel Hayom, believes that Hamas will adopt a policy of "tug-of-war to the end" to buy time to achieve its goals by seeking to prolong the ceasefire, in order to prevent the collapse of its rule in Gaza and avoid the erosion of its military power, according to him.
The military analyst believes that the deal is a necessary step on the road to achieving the goals of the Israeli war, saying that "the deal is a compromise between hopes and dreams and reality, and in the case of Gaza, the stubborn reality of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar."
In an attempt to seek any achievement for Israel from the armistice agreement, Limor said, "Unfortunately, it was not possible at this time to achieve a better deal that would return the detainees to the country, as the negotiations progressed, Hamas would increase its demands, and in parallel the dilemma would deepen on the Israeli side."
"We are talking about possible exchange deals and perhaps a comprehensive deal, and the Israeli public must understand that we are facing a bitter situation that is being talked about and the liberation of the oldest Palestinian prisoners such as Hassan Salameh, Muhannad Shreim, Abbas al-Sayed, Ibrahim Hamed and Abdullah Barghouti, and this is a nightmare for decision-makers in Israel," the military analyst said.
The longer and extended truce that would be granted in exchange for the release of more Israeli and foreign detainees is believed to give Hamas the possibility of a long-term ceasefire, putting Israel at a greater challenge of stopping the war.
Source : Al Jazeera