The Rapid Support Forces took control of the city of Al-Daein, the capital of East Darfur state, without confrontations following tribal mediation (Al-Jazeera)

KHARTOUM – The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are close to taking control of the Darfur region in western Sudan after seizing the army headquarters in El Daein, the capital of East Darfur state, leaving only El Fasher, the political and administrative capital of the Darfur region, which the main armed movements have announced they will defend alongside the army, threatening ethnic conflict and division of the region along with ethnicity.

Analysts believe that the Rapid Support Forces do not plan to separate Darfur at the current stage and it is not excluded that it will form a parallel authority in western Sudan to bargain with it and ensure a political role after the war, and if this is not achieved, it will work to strengthen itself and march towards Khartoum because its ambition is greater than Darfur.

Al-Daein without confrontations

On Tuesday, the Rapid Support Forces took control of the city of El Daein, the capital of East Darfur state, becoming the fourth of the five states under its influence.

The forces said in a statement that "the victories of the Rapid Support open a wide door for real peace that the Sudanese aspire to and build a homeland worthy of them," stressing that the state of East Darfur and with it Al-Daein "will remain safe" under its protection.

According to information from tribal sources, the army forces withdrew from the headquarters of the 20th Division in accordance with arrangements brokered by the leader of the Rizeigat tribe, Mahmoud Musa Madbou, to spare Al-Daein the danger of military confrontations between the two parties and the harm to civilians and displaced people who rented in them.

Al-Daein is considered the stronghold of the Rizeigat tribe, from which RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo "Hemedti" hails from and most of his commanders and fighters.

Since late October, the Rapid Support Forces have taken control of the city of Nyala, the capital of South Darfur state, the city of Zalingei, the capital of Central Darfur state, and the city of El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state, leaving only the city of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, to extend its full control over the Darfur region.

Arko Minawi and Jibril Ibrahim officially announced their bias to fight against the Rapid Support Forces in Darfur (social media)

Between Khartoum and Darfur

Political analyst Omar al-Tayeb believes that the Rapid Support Command announced the political and military objectives of the war since the second day of its outbreak in mid-April in Khartoum by arresting and prosecuting the commander-in-chief of the army, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and seizing control of the army's headquarters, i.e. seizing power.

According to the talk of the political analyst of Al Jazeera Net, the failure of political and military goals in Khartoum, prompted the Rapid Support Command to transfer the war to Darfur in order to use it as a pressure card to ensure a political future in the next stage, because it realizes that the integration of its forces has become a reality, and wants to reserve a political seat authenticity, not the agency through allies.

The same analyst predicted that the RSC using the Darfur card will succeed in returning to Khartoum through the negotiating table after its military project failed to seize power by force. Al-Tayeb believes that regional powers that have invested politically and militarily in rapid support will work to give him a political role in the next stage.

The situation in El Fasher after the RSF announced its control over 80% of Darfur (Al Jazeera)

Fears of division

Political circles and activists fear a clash between the RSF and armed movements in Darfur in El Fasher on ethnic grounds, as movements based on non-Arab components consider North Darfur state their stronghold and social center of gravity, and have decided to fight any battle to defend it.

The head of the Sudan Liberation Movement and the governor of the Darfur region, Minni Arko Minawi, the leader of the Justice and Equality Movement and Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, and the Sudanese Alliance Movement - which was led by the governor of West Darfur state Khamis Abkar, who was accused by the Rapid Support Forces of assassinating him - announced their departure from neutrality and participation in military operations on all fronts.

Minawi said they would not allow Sudan to be dismantled, and Darfur to be a gateway to tear the country apart, and strongly warned "the forces that seek to tear Sudan apart with the help of foreign circles, mercenaries and crossers."

"We decided to go to war to defend civilians who are being attacked in Sudan in general and Darfur in particular, where ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity are carried out, where people are buried alive in El Geneina or handcuffed, as in Nyala," Ibrahim said. "The danger now is not the spillover of the war to Darfur, but the division of the country along the lines of the Libyan model, which we cannot allow," he said.

Ibrahim believes that the RSF is moving to its alternative plan, which is to divide the country after the failure to take control of the capital, and pointed out that after their expansion in the region's cities such as Nyala, El Geneina and Zalingei, they are threatening El Fasher, which shelters displaced people from Darfur areas affected by the war, vowing to fight "to protect civilians".

On the other hand, the political adviser to the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Youssef Ezzat, considered the capture of the army's 20th Infantry Division in Daein a "great victory" that can only be completed by liberating all of Sudan peacefully or at war from their grip.

Youssef Ezzat called for protecting Darfur society from division and tribal violence after the people of the region paid a high price in lives during the previous decades and defeated the plans of the remnants (supporters of the regime of deposed President Omar al-Bashir).

He warned in a tweet via the platform "X" on Tuesday of what he described as "some Darfuris who want to implement old policies in favor of the remnants," and called for Darfur not to be dragged into new conflicts, and saw that the door to dialogue is still open to spare the region any form of violence.

Difficult conditions in most displacement camps in Darfur (Anatolia)

Darfur conflict

In the same context, political researcher on Darfur issues Ahmed Abdel Karim believes that the Rapid Support Forces headed towards Darfur after the failure of their plan to control Khartoum, but pointed out that if they cannot invest this in returning to negotiations with Khartoum, it will constitute a rule in Darfur, turning it into a base from which to march towards the capital.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Abdel Karim believes that the rapid support attempt to control El Fasher will put it in front of armed movements and all fighters with non-Arab roots, which causes a dangerous tribal sort that threatens the outbreak of civil war.

The researcher adds that the battle of El Fasher will determine the fate of Darfur, but he ruled out that the RSF will be able to rule Darfur alone, due to social complications and the repercussions of the previous Darfur war, where the former regime used Hemedti's forces to strike armed movements, which led to a split between Arab and African groups and the occurrence of war crimes that still remain in the memory of a large segment of the people of the region.

Abdul Karim stressed that the future of the region cannot be determined by one party, and that there is no choice but to hold a Darfur dialogue in which all components of Darfur participate.

Source : Al Jazeera