Who are the main winners and those affected by the Gaza truce? Analysts answer

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Analysts and experts stressed the importance of the temporary truce to stop the war on the Gaza Strip, especially the humanitarian aspect and the setback of the project to displace Gazans, amid skepticism about the possibility of extending it in light of the complexity of the scene and the crisis of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Academic and researcher in political science, Dr. Ibrahim Rabaya, said during his interview with the program "Gaza ... The temporary truce represents an Israeli setback for the displacement of the Gaza population due to adverse regional and international pressure, in addition to the absence of any operational achievement on the ground that gives the occupation army an impetus to go too far in the plan.

He stressed the importance of the truce for the international actors as they faced internal pressures that reduced their margin of maneuver, as it constitutes a rescue for Washington and its Western allies, as well as the Israeli government, and pointed out that the atmosphere is not ready for a political solution, due to the complex reality.

Regarding the most prominent gains of the Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas" from the truce, Rabaya said that it broke the discourse linking it to terrorism and eliminating it, as well as establishing a prisoner versus prisoners base after Israel had previously adopted a policy of easing the siege, as well as the humanitarian aspect related to enabling the steadfastness of the Palestinians, which makes Hamas the upper hand.

Rabaia believes that the extension of the truce is linked to two factors, the first on the ground, especially in the event of breakthroughs that may lead to its collapse, in addition to the impact of internal pressure in Israel, as the latter believes that it has provided a price through which it can extend the war in order to obtain an "image of victory."

He pointed out that there is controversy in Israel over the release of Palestinian prisoners of the second category - referring to prisoners with high sentences and life sentences - unlike women and children, which may further complicate matters about the future of the war.

Rabaia stressed that the humanitarian aspect is important, but he believed that the temporary truce will not be enough due to the magnitude of the disaster and the enormous needs at the level of the medical sector, civil defense and urgent aid.

Heal wounds

Writer and political analyst Wissam Afifa stressed the importance of the human dimension in the complex deal of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange after 48 days of genocide, war crimes, siege and starvation.

Afifa stressed that the truce is a warrior's rest, breathing and healing wounds and answering calls after civilians were the most affected by the unprecedented Israeli war on Gaza.

He referred to the part of women and children imprisoned by Israel after the spotlight was shed on the prisoners detained in Gaza, and pointed out that Israel has Palestinian children in its prisons, as well as killed thousands of children in the war in contrast to the missing under the rubble.

Afifa believes that the truce agreement is sufficient at a minimum, although Hamas views it with suspicion and suspicion, which explains - according to him - its insistence on the behavior of the occupation intelligence, especially reconnaissance planes, and the possibility of contact with Israeli forces on the ground, which may lead to violations.

He pointed to the occupation's need for a "picture of victory", which may push it to take advantage of any opportunity to catch a "precious catch", referring to the assassinations it may carry out against prominent resistance leaders, especially since Netanyahu's crisis still exists and the conviction of his partners that he has implicated them in a war that began without a vision.

Breakthrough and fears

William Lawrence, a professor of international relations and former US State Department official, stressed the importance of the truce, especially as it represents a humanitarian breakthrough, and stressed the need to open the various Gaza crossings as soon as possible, not just the Rafah crossing.

However, Lawrence believes that there is a lack of clarity in some of the terms of the truce, and the extent to which it can be respected by various parties, and he doubts whether it can be extended in light of the difficult negotiations that preceded its announcement and the presence of prisoners in non-Hamas quarters.

He pointed out that Netanyahu's career has come to an end, adding that he was in a bad situation before the war and now most Israelis blame him after the Hamas attack, especially since his government was divided and politically weakened.

Source : Al Jazeera