How will the truce in Gaza be reflected on the Lebanon front?

Hezbollah declared its commitment to the truce if the Israeli occupation forces abide by it (Al Jazeera)

BEIRUT – With the State of Qatar announcing the success of joint mediation efforts with Egypt and the United States between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which resulted in an agreement on a humanitarian truce in the Gaza Strip that will last for 4 days, which can be extended, attention is turning to the Lebanese front to the south, in which a "mini-war" broke out between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation forces along the border between Lebanon and occupied Palestine since the eighth of last October.

The question arises in Lebanon and regionally about the fate of this front, which has exhausted Israel, and in which Hezbollah played the role of support, he says, for the Palestinian resistance.

A source in Hezbollah told Al Jazeera that "the party was not part of the negotiations related to the truce and prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel, and that southern Lebanon is a front in support of the Gaza Strip and the cessation of fighting there will extend to Lebanon, and that Hezbollah will abide by the truce announced if the Israeli occupation forces abide by it."

The source stressed that "any Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon, or in Gaza during the truce, will be met with a response from Hezbollah."

Qatar announces humanitarian truce agreement in Gaza

Doha – 22 November 2023

The State of Qatar announces the success of joint mediation efforts with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which resulted in reaching an agreement for a humanitarian truce The timing of the...

— Qatar Foreign Ministry (@MofaQatar_AR) November 22, 2023

Possible fate

Writer and political analyst Hussein Ayoub believes that the truce will be reflected on the Lebanese front as a front of support and pressure, in order to force the cessation of the war on the Gaza Strip.

"The mere occurrence of the truce means a decrease in pressure on the Lebanese front to its lowest level, and may stop completely, pending the resumption of the Israeli war immediately after the end of the truce," Ayoub told Al Jazeera Net.

He spoke of data about Hezbollah's clarity "by telling some mediators that violating the truce in Gaza will make it dissolve the truce in the north, and that any targeting of Lebanese territory will inevitably be met with a response regardless of the considerations of the truce."

Writer and political analyst Wassim Bazzi, who is close to Hezbollah, believes that the fate of the Lebanese front is in the hands of Israel, as if it does not initiate fire, the truce will automatically cool the southern front.

Coinciding with the announcement of the truce, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas deputy head Khalil al-Haya and Hamas leader Osama Hamdan met and set a framework for "emphasizing the importance of continuing work and coordination until the promised victory is achieved." Also currently in Beirut is Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who is meeting Nasrallah and Lebanese and Palestinian officials.

Here, Wassim Bazzi includes these meetings as a framework for coordinating a single and comprehensive approach to the Gaza war and the supporting fronts. He says to Al Jazeera Net, "This movement is a reflection of the crucial hours before the truce, and evidence, that there is an integrated rhythm between the fronts where Gaza is the main spearhead."

The spokesman said that the Qatari mediation is complemented by continuous and open communication with Iran and Hezbollah as well.

Objectives of the armistice

Accordingly, Wassim Bazzi finds that the first scene that resulted from the armistice agreement was Israel's failure to achieve its stated goals for many reasons, most notably:

• Israel's inability in the Gaza field to achieve its goals.
• The solidity of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades in confrontation and confrontation.
• Pressure from the families of Israeli prisoners.
• The Lebanese Front's supporting role.
• The escalation of the Yemeni and Iraqi role in the confrontation against Tel Aviv and behind it Washington.

As for Hussein Ayoub, he details the achievements of the truce as follows:

• Politically, once Israel accepts the truce, it recognizes a party it wants to crush and eliminate, and this is the first achievement of the Palestinian resistance. Since day one, Israel has refused to respond for 45 days to all those demanding a truce, and therefore the mere fact that it agrees to a truce that it does not want and fears its repercussions is also a victory for the resistance.
  From day one, Israel considers the issue of prisoners to be marginal and non-essential, and that the goal is to eliminate Hamas, and some hard-wingers have even adopted the Hannibal doctrine, which states that a dead soldier is better than a captured soldier.
  Thus, some said that "the lives of prisoners are not more precious than the lives of the Israeli soldiers killed on October 7 and in battles for a month and a half.
• The truce will allow the international press to learn about the extent of the Israeli massacres and some of the chapters of the war of extermination hidden in the Gaza Strip over the days of the truce.
• The truce will give the people of northern and southern Gaza a breathing space after the longest war in their history with Israel, and is likely to last for months after the end of the truce.
• Securing the movement of people between north and south back and forth without Israel's ability to control safe passages in the center of the Strip.
• Affirming the boldness of the resistance to release its prisoners, despite the conditions of the siege and the security considerations surrounding the resistance. International and Arab aid moves towards northern Gaza for the first time and fuel is allowed in.

Objectives of the Lebanese Front

From the beginning of the war until the announcement of the truce date, the Lebanese Front, according to Wassim Bazzi, achieved several goals, most notably that Hezbollah tested how to confront Israel with such depth and the tools it developed after the July 2006 war.

For his part, Hussein Ayoub believes that the most important goal achieved by Hezbollah is to make Israel in the north in a state of war instead of occupancy, after the rules of engagement in force since 2006 fell and pushed for new bases that no one can control their geography from the south of the river to its north to the north of Syria and its south.

Ayoub says that "Israel is draining with the dead and wounded of its soldiers and the continued displacement of about 70,<> settlers from the north to the center, as well as Israel's transition from a state of attack to a state of defense, and this is the first time in the history of the Lebanese-Israeli conflict that Israel is in this position, and this point is very important."

He adds that Lebanon has more than 100 kilometers from Naqoura to the Shebaa farms, where three Israeli combat divisions are moving, not from the reserves. In addition, "the number of enemy deaths in the north is increasing significantly, and the number has reached about 3 dead and 27 wounded since the seventh of last October until the tenth of November, while the number of injuries in the last ten days alone about 136 injuries between dead and wounded."

Ayoub added that the Israeli army has so far lost about 60% of its intelligence and intelligence capacity on the northern front after the resistance carried out concentrated and successive bombardments on its positions and technical equipment.

The fate of the truce

In Lebanon as well as Gaza, the question arises as to the day after the end of the truce, because the fate of the Gaza Strip also determines the fate of the front between Hezbollah and the occupying forces.

Therefore, Wassim Bazzi believes that entering into a first truce will withdraw the momentum of the Israeli operation, and undermine its narrative, which was based on the refusal to negotiate, "which means that Israel, and behind it Washington, will fall off the tree."

"We are facing a test truce that may lead to other truces, after everyone realizes that Israel is unable to achieve its goals, in return for the continuation of the resistance by fighting the confrontation through defense, confrontation and steadfastness," he said.

Hussein Ayoub disagrees with him, ruling out that the truce will pave the way for stopping the Israeli war, and fears that "the next round will be more destructive and brutal than the Israeli side, as he wants to tell the Palestinians that the breathing of the truce will pay for it once it ends with massacres and genocide."

Source : Al Jazeera