In Madagascar, the alternations are rarely long, quiet rivers. But the campaign that ended on Tuesday 14 November, two days before the presidential election, is unprecedented: accusations of an "institutional coup d'état", repression of the opposition, calls for a boycott, controversy over the outgoing president's dual nationality... The large island in the Indian Ocean has been living for several months to the rhythm of an acute and insoluble pre-election crisis.
The latest twist to date: the opposition collective bringing together ten presidential candidates, including the two former presidents, Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, called on Tuesday the Malagasy people not to go to the polls for the first round of the election scheduled for Thursday.
"We reject Thursday's election and we call on all Malagasy people to consider that this election does not exist," candidate and opponent Hajo Andrianainarivelo, 56, said on behalf of the collective at a press conference in the capital Antananarivo.
"The electoral process turned out to be unfair because the candidates did not have the same conditions of expression, meetings and means to meet and express themselves during the pre-electoral and then electoral periods," said Christiane Rafidinarivo, a political scientist and visiting researcher at Cevipof (Sciences Po), who said that the opposition's mistrust was also based on the many irregularities observed on the electoral lists.
Accusations of clientelism have also marked this high-tension campaign. At the beginning of November, the Malagasy branch of Transparency International uncovered a system of electoral corruption set up by the presidential party. According to the NGO, Andry Rajoelina's camp had used the electoral lists to organize a distribution of food and various foodstuffs.
"This is a perfect illustration of the use of state structures for electoral campaign purposes, which is strictly forbidden by law," Ketakandriana Rafitoson, executive director of Transparency International's Malagasy branch, told RFI.
Institutional coup d'état
For several weeks, pressure has been mounting on the Malagasy government to postpone the date of an election already postponed by a week last month following the injury of a candidate during a demonstration.
Since the beginning of October, peaceful demonstrations and marches called by the opposition group have multiplied, despite the repression of the security forces. "A disproportionate use of force," the UN said in October, as did several governments and organizations, including the European Union and the United States.
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Tensions escalated further on 11 November near the iconic 13 May Square in the capital Antananarivo, when protesters responded to tear gas with improvised explosive devices.
In addition to this climate of tension on the ground, there is a fierce legal battle between Andry Rajoelina's camp and the opposition. In accordance with the Malagasy constitution, the head of state left office two months before the first round of the presidential election. During this time, the Speaker of the Senate was to act as interim. In a dramatic turn of events on 8 September, Herimanana Razafimahefa relinquished this position in a letter sent to the High Constitutional Court (HCC), citing "personal reasons".
In this unprecedented configuration, the interim went to Prime Minister Christian Ntsay, a close friend of Rajoelina, fuelling accusations of an "institutional coup d'état". Especially since a month later, the president of the Senate wanted to reverse his decision, claiming to have received death threats from the government in place. He was finally dismissed a few days later by his peers because of his "mental deficiency".
But this grotesque episode is not the only one to have ignited the powder keg. In June, several media outlets revealed that the outgoing president had quietly acquired French nationality in 2014. According to the opposition, which invokes the Nationality Code, Andry Rajoelina has lost his Malagasy nationality: he can therefore no longer be eligible for a second term. However, the court rejected the appeals calling for his candidacy to be invalidated.
For his part, the outgoing president played it down, evoking "a piece of paper" acquired only to facilitate the continuation of his children's studies in France. But this revelation was experienced as a betrayal by many Malagasy and weakened Andry Rajoelina and his speeches with sovereignist accents during the campaign, especially on the issue of the scattered islands administered by France, the former colonial power, but claimed by Madagascar.
"The argument that often comes up is that a naturalized person has taken an oath. The question is simple: what will happen in the event of a conflict of interest? Basically, this raises the question of the sovereignty" of Madagascar, Christiane Rafidinarivo believes.
Attempt at mediation
Faced with this political crisis, several personalities in the president's party have tried to advocate dialogue and appeasement with the opposition. "The seeds of a conflict for a fratricidal war are visible and continue to grow," the president of the National Assembly warned deputies on 17 October.
Supported by the World Council of Christian Churches (WCMW), Christine Razanamahasoa has since tried to renew the threads of dialogue and has pleaded for a postponement of the election. A stance that drew the wrath of her camp and led to her being expelled from her political party.
On 13 November, the Speaker of the National Assembly also called on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to mediate in the ongoing political crisis.
For his part, Andry Rajoelina refuses any compromise and insists that the election will take place on November 16th. "The opposition is trying to manoeuvre towards a transition [...]. We no longer need a political crisis in Madagascar, we need peace and stability," the outgoing president said in an interview with France 24 in October.
But today, no one knows what the consequences of this forced passage might be. "The population will certainly not accept to recognise the winner of a massively fraudulent election," says writer Michèle Rakotoson in an article published in the newspaper Le Monde.
"For a long time, people have resigned themselves to a state of lawlessness" in Madagascar, said political analyst Christiane Rafidinarivo. "But then they discovered that we can collectively say that our vote is not for sale. This gives strength to the mobilization."
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While the outcome of the protest movement is impossible to predict, analysts agree that abstention is likely to reach record highs in a country where everyday concerns most often take precedence over electoral duty: according to the World Bank, Madagascar has one of the highest poverty rates on the planet, reaching 75% in 2022.
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