IEA provides energy advice to industrialized countries (Reuters)
The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next, despite an expected slowdown ineconomic growth for almost all major economies.
The Paris-based IEA said that while voluntary supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of the year will limit supply as demand growth continues to slow, the market could turn into a surplus at the beginning of 2024.
With economic growth and overall oil demand expected to lose momentum next year, oil demand was supported this year by strong U.S. deliveries and record demand from China in September.
Demand from China, the world's largest crude importer and second-largest economy, hit a new record high of 17.1 million bpd in September, the IEA said.
The International Energy Agency, which provides energy advice to industrialized nations, said the 2024 outlook was also supported by hopes of interest rate cuts and recent declines in crude prices. "For now, as demand continues to outpace available supplies as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, market balances will remain vulnerable to increased economic and geopolitical risks – and to further volatility to come," she said.
Global oil demand is currently expected to reach 102 million barrels per day in 2023, according to the agency, raising its forecast for oil demand growth to 2.4 million barrels per day from 2.3 million barrels per day in a previous forecast to approach OPEC's forecast of 2.46 million barrels per day growth. China will likely contribute 1.8 million bpd of the daily increase in global demand, according to the IEA.
The IEA also raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 930,880 bpd from 2,25 bpd in a previous forecast, which remains well below OPEC's forecast of <>.<> million bpd.
"Despite growth that is about two-thirds less than this year's increase, global oil demand will rise to a record annual level" of 102.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, the IEA said.
Source: Agencies