Europe 1 with AFP 18:08 p.m., November 05, 2023

With one year to the day to go before the U.S. presidential election, a poll published Sunday by the New York Times puts potential Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead of incumbent President Joe Biden in five out of six key states, with the Democrat losing ground among young people and minorities.

According to this New York Times/Siena College poll, the Republican billionaire leads his Democratic opponent in voting intentions in Nevada (52%/41%), Georgia (49/43), Arizona (49/44), Michigan (48/43), Pennsylvania (48/44), while Joe Biden would win in Wisconsin (47/45). In each of these disputed states, Joe Biden won in 2020.

The survey was conducted by telephone from Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 among 3,662 registered voters in the six states. Its results should be viewed with caution, with a year to go before the election, with the margin of error being between 4.4 and 4.8 points depending on the state.

'He's too old to be an effective president'

But the trend is not in favor of Joe Biden, with 67% of respondents believing that the country is going in the wrong direction, 59% disapproving of the way he is conducting his role as president (including 46% strongly), and 71% who are convinced that, at 80, "he is too old to be an effective president".

>> ALSO READ – Border: Biden resumes construction of Trump's wall, saying he is forced to do so

Joe Biden is losing ground among young people, with only 41% of the 18-29 age group decided, definitively or likely, to vote for him, compared to 40% for Donald Trump.

"The demographics that supported Joe Biden by overwhelming margins in 2020 are now much more contested," including Hispanic and African-American communities, notes the New York Times.

A reassuring Biden camp

The Biden camp was quick to put these results into perspective. "Forecasts a year in advance tend to turn out to be slightly different a year later," said one of the Biden-Harris campaign's spokesmen for 2024, Kevin Munoz. He cited a poll that showed President Barack Obama soundly defeated a year before his re-election in 2012, or the 2022 midterm elections that looked set to be catastrophic for Joe Biden, and where Democrats limited the damage.

"We will win in 2024 by going to work headlong, not worrying about a poll," he added.