He has been out of the public eye for two months. Li Shangfu failed to attend meetings of the Central Military Commission, and never went on a planned trip to Vietnam in September. Now he has finally disappeared from the central government's website gov.cn.
His portrait among hundreds of others in China's party and government hierarchy, most of them men, in pyramids and squares against sky-blue backgrounds, has disappeared one by one for a long time.
And that's about as much as we know.
U.S. sanctions
It is not known, for example, whether his dismissal had anything to do with the fact that he has U.S. sanctions against him. They have made it difficult for China's military to engage in dialogue with the U.S. military. In such cases, a new defense minister might be a sign of a willingness to hold closer talks with the United States.
But that doesn't seem likely, as Li Shangfu was appointed defense minister when he already had sanctions against him. So it hasn't been a problem before.
Suspected corruption
It is also not clear yet whether he is suspected of corruption. According to Reuters, Li is being investigated by Chinese authorities for corruption in connection with arms deals. Corruption in the Chinese military has a long and well-documented history, but Xi Jinping is considered to have done away with much of the old corruption. Li Shangfu was one of the newcomers, one appointed by Xi himself. Could he, as one of Xi Jinping's own, really have betrayed Xi Jinping in such a banal way?
Possible infidelity affairs
Nor is anything known about adulterous affairs or other immoral sexual relations, a common reason for sudden demise among China's powerful men. For example, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang was also recently deposed. According to the Wall Street Journal, Qin Gang had an affair with a Chinese woman who lives in the United States, and that he had a child with American citizenship with her.
Unrest off the coast of China
Could it be the unrest in the waters off China's coast that is the reason for Li Shangfu's dismissal? Xi Jinping has every reason to be dissatisfied with how the situation is developing right now. But it is also hard to imagine that Li Shangfu would have pursued a strategy that would not have had Xi's support.
Has Li Shangfu perhaps failed to modernize the Chinese army, and make it combat-ready? Xi Jinping constantly calls on the armed forces to prepare for battle. But there is still a long way to go.
China simply lacks the experience that the United States, for example, has accumulated, and the military is still considered far too hierarchical to cope with the quick decisions that a modern chain of command requires.
More ousted politicians
The list of dismissed ministers is getting long. No fewer than four ministers and a senior military officer have been dismissed in the last few months alone.
At the same time as the state evening news here in Beijing reported that Li Shangfu had been deposed, they were telling us that the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Science and Technology had also been deposed.
The portraits against a blue background on gov.cn seem to be becoming more and more anonymous and interchangeable. Only one head seems to be getting bigger and more important – Xi Jinping's.