JERUSALEM – For the sixth day of the war on the Gaza Strip, analysts and Israeli "national security" research centers are arguing about the goals of a possible ground military operation, ranging from undermining Hamas rule to a limited incursion to restore deterrence. There are those who went so far as to occupy the Gaza Strip in order to restore security and safety to the settlements of the "Gaza envelope".
In the face of these proposed goals and expected "scenarios", the Israeli government refrains from defining all the objectives behind the war on the Gaza Strip, and only the declared ones carry out assassinations of Hamas leaders and Palestinian factions.
Analysts agree that any military operation, including a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip, would cost the Israeli army heavy casualties, perhaps not even in previous wars.
They estimated that beyond the challenges of fighting and fighting in one of the most densely populated areas in the world, it can be assumed that Hamas prepared in advance for the possibility of an Israeli ground offensive on the Strip.
They suggested that Hamas and the various Palestinian factions had already prepared for what they called a "reception" for Israeli forces from underground and above, and they asserted that the Qassam Brigades were present and highly prepared to face the scenario of an Israeli ground incursion.
Challenges facing the Israeli war cabinet in the planned ground operation (Anatolia)
The challenges of the "War Cabinet"
Yossi Yehoshua, a military affairs correspondent for the Israeli Ynet website, believes that while Israel is waging a war on Gaza with no clear and specific goals, except for the assassination of Hamas leaders and factions, it faces challenges on several fronts, and that the "war cabinet" that emerged from the national emergency government finds itself facing the Lebanese dilemma and the northern front.
He explained that the joining of former Defense Minister Benny Gantz and former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot to the emergency government and the War Cabinet (military council for war) may contribute to restoring the confidence of the Israeli public in Netanyahu's government and the military institution, in light of the erosion of its deterrent power that was revealed during the battle of the "Al-Aqsa Flood."
But until the start of the ground incursion of the Israeli occupation army in the Gaza Strip, the features of which are not yet clear, the military correspondent says, "The war mechanism is working, and we will see more threats and strikes carried out by the air force and artillery shelling, in an attempt to rehabilitate and calm the Israeli public, whose blood is still boiling over what happened in the Gaza envelope."
The military analyst says that Israel, despite the unprecedented US support, will face great threats before the international community, and the voices calling for an end to the war on Gaza, which is experiencing a humanitarian catastrophe, "and the question remains whether Israel will achieve any achievement or goal of the war."
Justifications for land incursion
Under the headline "On the Road to a Land Incursion," Pnina Shukar, a researcher in strategic and security studies, wrote an article in Israel Hayom newspaper in which she asserted that past experiences in military operations against Hamas proved that through shelling and raids no goal can be achieved, and therefore the army must carry out a ground incursion into Gaza.
In light of the painful blow dealt by the Qassam Brigades to Israel, Benina believes that Israel is bound by a ground operation, noting that unlike previous military operations with Hamas, it seems this time that the political level, represented by the emergency government and the "war cabinet", will issue an order for a wide ground operation, which is reinforced first by the formation of a national government, the unprecedented mobilization of reserve forces, and the declaration of a state of emergency.
Benina suggested the scenario of a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip despite the expected casualties in the ranks of the occupation army, saying, "This is due to the strategic goal of undermining Hamas' rule in Gaza, as past experiences have proven that great military achievements cannot be achieved through artillery fire and shelling from the air, and that there is no alternative to occupying the territories in order to control movement there and ensure calm and security."
Regarding the Israeli public's demand for the release of Hamas prisoners, she explained that their release in a military operation through ground combat seems – at the moment – an unlikely scenario, "but the seizure of Hamas' main assets is only possible within the framework of a ground operation, and may be a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the movement."
The Impact of the Hamas Strike
Former national security adviser and military official Giora Eiland believes the military must respond to Hamas's painful blow to Israeli memory. He described what happened in the "Gaza envelope" as a "terrible disaster" that came in light of Israeli weakness and internal divisions that penetrated the army as well.
Island was most explicit in an article in Yedioth Ahronoth titled "This is not revenge. Either us or them," he said, noting that the strategic goal of "creating a situation in which Hamas does not have a body with military capability is a correct goal, and indeed necessary," but ruled out that this would be achieved through a ground incursion, referring to the difficulty facing Israel and other countries in overthrowing Hamas rule in Gaza.
Island questioned the possibility of restoring calm, security and safety to the residents of 22 settlements in the vicinity of the Strip, pointing out that the "terrible disaster" will remain in the memory of all residents, so it will be difficult for residents to return and raise their children in the area, as long as there are existential threats.
Weakening Hamas, undermining its rule and ensuring calm from the Gaza Strip cannot be achieved through aerial bombardment, and it is even questionable whether it is right to risk a long-term ground operation, so Island argues that "Israel has no choice but to make Gaza a place that is temporarily or permanently impossible to live in."