"Scenarios" for the future. What is the impact of the "Al-Aqsa flood" on the Palestinian Authority?

Since the start of the events of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle on October 7, the Palestinian Authority has appeared to be facing a further decline in its popularity among Palestinians: the West Bank has been witnessing a state of escalating ferment since the events of the Battle of the Sword of Jerusalem in 2021, while its leadership has appeared unable to provide political achievements to the people, content with the security mission entrusted to it by continuing "security coordination" with Israel.

Palestinians are accustomed to repeated statements from the PA president, demanding protection and begging for help from the United Nations, the latest and most famous of which was his speech in which he said, "People, world, protect us, protect us, can I understand why you are not protecting us?" On the other hand, the resistance in Gaza offers Palestinians today a model that is a match for the arrogance of the Israeli occupation.

Meeting of the Government Follow-up Cell on the Repercussions of the Ongoing Aggression on Gaza (Social Media)

"Emergency" power interaction

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met "urgently" since the first day of the operation with civil and security officials, and directed them to provide protection for the Palestinian people, and to provide everything necessary to strengthen their steadfastness in the face of the occupation and the settlers, without explaining exactly what this means, as Palestinians in the West Bank are subjected to continuous attacks by settlers, and the most the PA did for them was to install protection for the windows of their homes.

The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, "We have always warned of the consequences of the blockage of the political horizon and the failure of the Palestinian people to exercise their legitimate right to self-determination and state." She attributed the explosion to the "silence of the international community", which has left the Palestinian issue unresolved for 75 years.

Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh stated that the PA began to move Arab and international to stop the bombing of the Gaza Strip from the first moment, but his first post on Facebook came late at night on the first day of the battle, which prompted more than 2000,<> people to choose the "icon of laughter" in interaction with the post.

In addition, Health Minister Mai al-Kayla declared a "state of emergency" in all Palestinian hospitals, noting that "hospitals are supplied with the necessary medical supplies, medicines and blood units," adding that "all West Bank hospitals are ready to receive the wounded from the Gaza Strip," but these statements do not mean anything on the ground, as the shelling in the Gaza Strip and medicine in the West Bank.

In another context, the occupation expelled hundreds of Gazan workers inside the Green Line and placed them at checkpoints after abusing them, prompting them to seek refuge in the West Bank, of whom 300 workers have so far arrived in Ramallah, while photos and videos showed workers crammed into the hall of the "Ramallah Recreational Complex", instead of receiving them in decent conditions.

This has angered many commentators on social media, reflecting a weakness in the authority's preparations to act in times of "emergency." However, Laila Ghannam, a governor of Ramallah and al-Bireh, noted that the situation in the compound is temporary, "as the largest number of them have been secured in the governorate's hotels."

Dealing with the resistance in the West Bank

At the level of measures, perhaps the most prominent measure of the PA is to ensure that the state of resistance does not extend further, as many marches in support of the Gaza Strip were launched in the governorates of the West Bank, amounting to 67 demonstrations, and in the cities of Nablus and Jenin, which constituted a state of intractability for the PA, the security services suppressed demonstrations by force, and began arresting many activists in the West Bank, the most prominent of which were: Musab Zalloum on the background of his support for the resistance.

While the various acts of resistance escalated in the West Bank, according to the "Palestine Information" Center (Ma'ta), the total resistance activities since the beginning of the "Al-Aqsa flood" reached 567 acts of resistance, distributed over 11 cities, including 156 shooting cases, causing 10 injuries among the occupation soldiers, while the number of martyrs reached 31 martyrs until Thursday afternoon.

At the same time, the PA, through Fatah's organization, issued calls for a mass strike in the West Bank, on the second and third days of the battle, "to mourn the souls of the martyrs." Universities and schools have been switched to e-learning because students are afraid of the current situation.

Although such steps may be taken as a response to the event, they can be read as a disruption of it, by forcing people to stay at home, thereby venting anger that could have been exploited in collective and national contexts.

"Scenarios" for the future of power

The first scenario is based on the assumption of an increase in the importance and need of power for the international system, especially after its recent marginalization after talk of the "deal of the century" and the rise of a far-right government in Israel.

This scenario seems to reveal the importance of the role played by the Palestinian Authority in controlling and controlling the Palestinian street, and carrying out repressive tasks on behalf of the occupation.

On the other hand, the PA needs some economic and political support to ensure that it continues to have some legitimacy on the Palestinian street, which complicates the way this scenario can be realized, especially with the continuation of settlements, which Israel seems to not retreat from at all costs.

In this context, Mahmoud Abbas held many contacts with Arab and world leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, the US Secretary of State, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

The second scenario is that these events will accelerate the collapse and disintegration of the authority, as the authority is witnessing a clear political impasse and an institutional deficit that lies in the gathering of all powers in the hands of Mahmoud Abbas, with his inability to ensure their peaceful inheritance, especially since the polarization within the authority and the Fatah movement has become at its most intense.

All this comes amid the anger of the Palestinian community towards the PA, and its vision of the resistance in Gaza as a model capable of achieving dignity and restoring the "agenda" of liberation, which was reflected in many popular demonstrations recently, as the masses chanted the name of Muhammad Deif, while the chant for the Palestinian president as the leader of the Palestinians was completely absent.

It is noteworthy that the Palestinian Authority contributed, in addition to Israel and Egypt, to the siege of Gaza after Hamas took control of it in 2007, announcing in 2017 the imposition of sanctions on the Strip, as thousands of employees were referred to forced retirement, and the rest of them were deducted from their salary by 50%, and the salaries of the released prisoners were cut, and 76,80 families classified as below the poverty line were deprived of their allocations for social affairs, and the Authority stopped paying electricity dues, and paid the water bill, and reduced the percentage of the Gaza Strip from their medical referrals to <>%.