Atlantic currents contribute to the redistribution of heat, cold and rainfall between the tropics and the far north of the ocean, but a recent study by an international team led by scientists from the University of Copenhagen warns - according to new calculations - that these currents will stop within two or three decades if current greenhouse gas emissions continue, which contradicts the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
According to a press release published on the University of Copenhagen website on July 25, contrary to what we might imagine about the impact of climate change in Europe, there may be a cooler future.
According to the new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute and the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Copenhagen predicted that the ocean currents system that currently distributes cold and heat between the North Atlantic and the tropics will stop altogether if the same levels of greenhouse gases are emitted as we do today.
Researchers use advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data recorded 150 years ago (Getty Images)
Advanced statistical tools
To reach these findings, the researchers used advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data recorded 150 years ago, with the researchers confirming that the ocean current, known as the thermo-salt cycle, or inversion rotation in the Atlantic longitude (AMOC), will collapse by 95 percent between 2025 and 2095.
This is likely to happen within 34 years from now, in 2057, and could lead to significant challenges, particularly warming in the tropics and increased storms in the North Atlantic.
The researchers analyzed sea surface temperatures in a particular area of the North Atlantic from 1870 to the present day. These sea surface temperatures are "fingerprints" of the strength of that ocean current, which has only been measured directly over the past 15 years.
The researchers' prediction is based on early warning observations shown by peripheral currents when they become unstable. These early warning signals for the thermo-salt cycle have been reported previously, but only now have advanced statistical methods been developed that have made it possible to predict when the collapse will occur.
Professor Susan Detliffsen, from the University of California, said: "Using new and improved statistical tools, we made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a breakdown in the thermosaline cycle is likely, something we were not able to do before.
The ocean current known as the "Atlantic longitude inversion rotation" is part of the global system of ocean currents (Getty Images)
Why is this circumferential current important?
The ocean current known as the Atlantic Longitude Inversion Rotation (AMOC) is part of the global system of ocean currents. It accounts for by far the bulk of heat redistribution from the tropics to the northernmost Atlantic regions, not least Western Europe."
At the northernmost latitudes, circulation ensures that surface water is converted into deep ocean currents heading south. The circulation creates space for the transport of additional surface water north from the tropics. As such, thermo-salt circulation is critical to maintaining the relatively mild climate of the North Atlantic.
Professor Peter Dittelvessen of the Niels Bohr Institute says the collapse of that current could have very serious consequences for the Earth's climate by changing how heat and rainfall are distributed globally.