The meetings could be directly decisive for Sweden's NATO membership

It is set for drama in these final days before the NATO summit, which begins on Tuesday 11 July.

First, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will meet US President Joe Biden in Washington. On Thursday, a meeting will then be held in Brussels with, among others, NATO's Secretary General and the foreign ministers of Sweden and Turkey.

Tight schedule

The international situation is anything but favourable for Sweden. The recent burning of the Koran has stirred up emotions in the Muslim world. It has also been condemned by Turkish President Erdoğan.

At the same time, the government is under pressure from new applications for Koran burnings. This threatens NATO membership, but also makes Sweden a target for terrorist attacks.

There are still no signs that Turkey is prepared to reconsider its opposition to Swedish NATO membership.

Time is therefore running out for the Swedish Government.

Hope for negotiations

In this situation, the government hopes to be able to solve the final knots through the meetings with President Biden and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Sweden needs American help to put pressure on Turkey. For Turkey, a deal with American fighter jets also looms.

Thursday's meeting is perhaps even more important. The foreign ministers of Sweden and Turkey will meet under the leadership of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

For Sweden, it will be extremely important what information Hakan Fidan gives. Expect that the Swedish negotiators will listen carefully for any opening from the Turkish side.

If Turkey drops its opposition to Swedish NATO membership, so will Hungary. If so, the matter is clear.

NATO membership is a high priority for the Swedish government. Ulf Kristersson has pointed out it as the single most important issue for Swedish national security.

Important for the United States

But Sweden's NATO membership is also important for the United States. President Biden and his administration have invested heavily in expanding NATO with Finland and Sweden in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine. To only partially succeed in this expansion would be a setback for the United States and a success for Russia.

In addition, Sweden is strategically important for NATO. Sweden is the largest country in Scandinavia and supplies can be transported via Sweden to both Finland and the Baltic countries.

Although time is running out, there is still a possibility in theory for Turkey and Hungary to ratify Sweden's NATO application before the summit on Tuesday. Such a process can be completed in just a few days. The problem for Sweden, however, is that no statements by Erdogan so far indicate this.

One option is for the countries to continue negotiations until the summit itself and for an agreement to be reached during the meeting itself. It would also put the spotlight on Erdogan during the NATO meeting. In that case, formal ratification could only take place afterwards.

A third possibility is that Turkey will continue to block Swedish NATO membership and that negotiations will continue after the summer. In many ways, this would be the worst possible outcome for Sweden. This would mean continued uncertainty for the Swedish NATO process, but also continued exposure to Koran burnings and Russian influence operations.