El Niño makes a comeback after 7 years

It is expected to lead to soaring global temperatures, disruptive weather and weather patterns, and the possibility of record high temperatures within 5 years

The World Meteorological Organization issued a July 7 bulletin confirming that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, which could lead to global temperature spikes and disruptive weather and weather patterns.

According to the organization's latest projections, there is a 2023% chance that El Niño will continue in the second half of 90, and this El Niño will be at least moderately intense. The World Meteorological Organization said this increases the likelihood of record global temperatures and damaging weather over the next 12 months.

The last El Niño event started in 2015 and ended in 2016.

The group also said the latest announcement combines forecasts and expert guidance from around the world and follows similar statements made earlier this year by several national agencies, including the United States and Japan.

In the past few days, there have also been continuous high temperature weather in many places in China. Relevant experts said that this is also affected by the El Niño phenomenon to push up global temperatures, and it is expected that 2023 or 2024 will break the global warmest record in 2016 and become the warmest year in history.

What are the characteristics of a strong El Niño?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño is a climatic phenomenon caused by abnormal water temperature increases in the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean, which occurs on average every two to seven years, usually lasting 9 to 12 months. This is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, but climate change caused by human activities also sets its backdrop.

WMO Secretary-General Talas said: "An El Niño event will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the globe and oceans. ”

He noted that the WMO announcement was a signal to governments around the world to prepare ahead of time to curb the health, ecosystem and economic impacts of El Niño. "Early warning and early action on extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon saves lives and livelihoods," he stressed. ”

Reuters reported that the last super-strong El Niño event occurred between 2015 and 2016, which, combined with global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, led to 2016 being the hottest year on record.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, this record may soon be broken.

In its May report, the World Meteorological Organization predicted a 5 percent chance of becoming the hottest year on record for at least one or even the entire five-year period, breaking the record set in 5 when El Niño was unusually strong. Given that El Niño's effects on global temperatures usually manifest themselves in the second year of its formation, it is likely to be most pronounced in 1. It could also make 5 the first year to exceed the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 98.2016 degrees Celsius.

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of the World Meteorological Organization's regional climate forecasting service, told Reuters: "It's hard to tell you whether it's this year or next year" and that "all we know is that in the next five years we could have the hottest year on record." ”

The World Meteorological Organization expects El Niño to become more prominent this winter. "There are still some uncertainties due to the weak ocean-atmosphere coupling, which is critical for El Niño amplification and maintenance," the group wrote in the statement, and "it is expected that it will take about a month for the tropical Pacific Ocean to fully form a coupling." ”

What are the typical effects of El Niño?

According to the World Meteorological Organization, although El Niño has many typical manifestations, no two El Niño events in history are exactly the same.

In a typical El Niño event, the global average temperature will rise, and when combined with activities such as human pollution emissions, it will often produce new national and global temperature records.

In terms of region-specific impacts, the World Meteorological Organization outlined that El Niño generally causes stronger monsoons in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and parts of Central Asia, leading to increased rainfall, and also has the opposite effect in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia, causing severe drought. During the Northern Hemisphere summer, warm water from El Niño can exacerbate hurricanes in the central/eastern Pacific Ocean while hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin.

The World Meteorological Organization warns that the chance of El Niño formation is 5% in May-July this year, rising to 7% in July-September.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño Watch alert in April, making a similar forecast.

Talas said that although La Niña in the previous three years had served as a temporary "buffer" to global temperatures, the past eight years were still the hottest eight years on record.

According to Xinhua, the international scientific research agency World Weather Attribution Alliance estimates that the possibility of record-breaking heat waves in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria this year will be "at least 100 times more."

The World Health Organization said last month it was preparing for increased transmission of viral diseases linked to El Niño, such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya.

Maria Neira, director of the World Health Organization's Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, told Reuters: "We can reasonably expect that the incidence of infectious diseases will increase due to rising temperatures. ”

This year it has been dry and muggy in many parts of the world

According to Xinhua News Agency, North America suffered from high temperature weather this summer. In the southern United States, Texas, Florida and many other places, many cities have to open summer centers for people to cool off. The U.S. Emergency Management predicts that the heat wave may cause severe weather such as heavy rain, high winds and tornadoes in the south.

Canada continues to be affected by wildfires. Since the beginning of this year, the total area of wildfires in Canada has exceeded 4,7 square kilometers, making this year the most severe wildfire year since Canada entered the 21st century.

In Europe, this spring was the hottest on record in Spain and the second driest spring. Two-thirds of France's groundwater is below normal levels, and forest fires have occurred in some areas.

Temperatures are also rising in the Nordic region. Temperatures in Finland are expected to reach 30°C in the coming days – a rarity for countries near the Arctic Circle. Small wildfires in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are likely to worsen without heavy rainfall.

In Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia have seen high temperatures since April, setting local high temperature records.

The China Meteorological Administration also gave advance warning of El Niño this summer. "El Niño is on the way, and we need to prepare for extreme weather response." At a June 6 online media briefing, Zhou Bing, chief climate service expert at the China Meteorological Administration, said.

According to China Weather Network, for China, the occurrence of El Niño will generally weaken the summer wind significantly, and the monsoon rain belt is located southerly, so the southern region is more prone to flooding, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River often delay the entry time into Mei. At the same time, North China and other places have little precipitation and are prone to drought. In summer, the temperature in the northeast and the south is often lower than that of the usual year, and it is prone to "cool summer", and the cold air activity in the northern region is weaker in winter, which is more prone to warm winter, and the smog weather may also increase.

For example, according to Xinhua News Agency, El Niño events from June 2009 to April 6 brought significant high temperature and heat waves, and from autumn 2010 to spring 4, southwest China experienced the worst drought in autumn, winter and spring since meteorological records began.

However, China Weather Network reported that it should be noted that the impact of El Niño on China's weather and climate is indirect, complex, and only one of many influencing factors, so the specific situation of each time is still different.

"Everywhere should be prepared to respond to the development of El Niño." Zhou Bing said that high temperature and heat wave events have caused many adverse effects on local industrial and agricultural production, water resources, ecological environment, energy supply, human health and people's lives, and persistent extreme high temperatures are easy to induce compound meteorological disasters, forcing the outbreak of drought to become faster and faster, and promoting the transformation from slow drought to sudden drought on a global scale. (Beijing News reporter Yao Yuan)