A giant or a bubble. Is Declan Rice worth £120m?

Believe it or not, there are three European clubs willing to bid at least $100 million to West Ham to sign Declan Rice, although we devoted more than 2000,1 words in May to the seriousness of these million-million-dollar centennial deals, and their slim prospects of success proven by practical experience, but unfortunately, Pep Guardiola, Mikel Arteta and Thomas Tuchel are not interested in Sheppard's test tables or Simon Cooper's theories, and the biggest surprise is that they don't seem to follow what is published here. (<>)

I do preference

Frankly, the deal is provocative, not only because it will often exceed the £100m mark, as many deals have exceeded the £100m mark, but also because of the way it will exceed the £100m barrier.

With just one year left on Rice's contract, this would have made him practically the most expensive deal in football history – even more expensive than Neymar's deal for Paris Saint-Germain – had it not been for an additional clause that many did not pay attention to, giving West Ham the right to extend the contract to 2025, that's the first reason. (2)

The second reason, of course, is that Rice is an English citizen. This makes him more expensive than peers of other nationalities because.. Because.. One moment.. Because of being English, of course. Is that clear. The important thing is that part of his price, or rather the price of the season remaining on his contract, is due to the laws of the country itself, not to its actual value, and if there is anything worse than spending 100 million in one player, it is that his nationality is one of the reasons. (3)

Declan Rice (Anadolu)

The third reason can be easily seen from the statements of David Moyes, his manager, and Mark Noble, the current sporting director and former captain, in the last two years since Rice received his first international call-up to represent England at Euro 2020, and there is a consensus in south-west London that his price will not be less than £120 million, equivalent to 139200000,152400000,3 euros or $<>,<>,<>. (<>)

It started with an insurmountable record in an attempt to keep it for a few more seasons, then Chelsea and Real Madrid ensured that it turned into a realistic number when they signed Enzo Fernandes and Jude Bellingham with figures similar to Benfica and Dortmund respectively. This provoked West Ham, of course, and led them to insist that Rice become the most expensive, for no other reason than to become the most expensive.

Last May, at the time of the publication of the same report that Guardiola, Tuchel or Arteta had not read, Moyes was asked about Rice's potential price, and he replied(3) using the famous English expression: "When it happens, it will blow that out of the water!"

What Moise is literally saying is that Rice's price "will blow the current record out of the water!" If we translate this expression, which originated in World War II to describe the overwhelming submarine victories over naval destroyers, into the language of football, what Moyes means is that there is no comparison between the number that Rice deserves and Fernandes, and putting all that aside, what Moyes is actually saying is that they will simply take advantage of the current madness and lack of standards and push the wheel in the same direction in the hope that they will get as many as possible even if Rice does not deserve half of it. That's the third reason it's a provocative deal; the crudeness of Rice's assessment of this figure. (4) (5)

Is this new or surprising? Of course not. In fact, that's what happens with every English talent that floats on the scene. This is also said about Rice's former colleague, Rhys Oxford, who shone in 2016 after graduating from the same academy, and did not manage to meet a quarter of fantasy expectations for many reasons, perhaps one of which was "fantasy expectations." (6) (7)

That's also the same pattern as Maguire's deal when both United and City came to ask for his contract, when Leicester felt the England international was more deserving of his record than Van Dijk, and everyone knows how that story ended. Of course Rice and Maguire are different as players, but the similarity between the two deals could go beyond the pounds.

Numbers without context

Believe it or not; almost the only number that came into context was the deal number itself. West Ham have asked for £120m based on Enzo and Bellingham deals, although the trio are different in their roles and capabilities, and although this figure could drop to £105m (an additional 100+5), the value of Arsenal's latest offer, in which they try to surpass City's first offer with an additional 80+10. (8) (9)

Bro was begging us for Declan Rice 😭😭😭😭😭 https://t.co/bdjxIVoXoA pic.twitter.com/oEFnq8Z2Kt

— 17 (@DxBruyneSZN) June 28, 2023

Except that, almost all of Rice's impressive numbers came in total format; Rice was the most to regain possession for his team in the Premier League last season with 334 times to Rodri City's 301, and also accumulated the largest number of interceptions among his peers at 63 times, in addition to another statistic that no one talked about, which is the fact that his defensive statistics are the most fallaciously in the whole of the Premier League during the 2022-2023 season. (10)

Of course, you know what we're going to tell you now because, unlike Tuchel, Arteta and Guardiola, you follow what is published here, so you know Darl Huff's famous book "How to Lie Using Statistics", and you know very well that this is the first trick in the statistical deception manual: to resort to aggregate numbers instead of rates. (11)

Moisés Caicedo vs Declan Rice 📊

Who you taking? 👀 pic.twitter.com/c2TqmfC2UH

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) June 28, 2023

Rates give you at least part of the context, so you can doubt any absolute or total number with a clear conscience, knowing that its owner avoided the rate for a clear purpose, and the clear purpose here became clear after The Athletic analyst Mark Carey published his own statistical analysis of Rice's defensive abilities without the ball. (12)

Of the 69 players who held the centre-top position in the Premier League during 2022-2023, Rice came in sixty-second in terms of "true tackles". Real tackles are the sum of the defensive duos a player has fought, including those he has lost, as well as the fouls he has committed.

The difference between the two numbers? Context: Curry uses a technique to compare a player's defensive actions relative to his team's time without the ball. In other words, if Rodri were to regain 301 possession for a team with an average possession of 65%, would Bryce's 334 times still be remarkable given that West Ham's average possession is 42%? (13)

Average possession for Premier League teams during the 2022-2023 season (Transfer Market)

Of course, we don't think so; one of the most important reasons Rice leads the defensive statistics in particular is the fact that he is the most capped Premier League player overall, in addition to the fact that the 42% of West Ham puts them in nineteenth place among the Premier League teams at the level of average possession, meaning that they are the second most time in the competition to spend time without a ball behind only Nottingham Forest.

What's interesting here is that Rice has the highest success rate in the league in these "real tackles" at 70%. Perhaps this is what suggests to everyone that his defensive effort is more prolific than his actual reality. This is another loophole in current measurement standards; it tells you what each player did, not what they didn't.

In other words, most of the time, you see Rice when he wins the ball, or you don't see him at all. This is another problem with this statistic, simply because a failed attempt is better than no attempt, the first is at least able to force the opponent to change direction, or disable it for a second that allows another teammate to return, even if it fails to extract the ball itself.

Rice came second in total with 597 successful attempts after Rodri with 702, and the difference this time can be easily seen from the man's performance summaries, as most of those attempts to carry the ball came in counter-shifts from defense to attack, with relatively large spaces, less risk, and worse defensive positions for opponents, unlike Rodri. (10)

This leads you to the second fallacy in the same number; the ball carrying statistics suggest huge possibilities under pressure, and Rice's abilities to play facing his goal, and break the opponent's lines by advancing with the ball, but in fact, one of Rice's most important disadvantages in possession is his tension under organized high pressure, and the delay and weakness of his decisions, while he shines strongly in the rapid transformations launched from in front of his penalty area, especially when he is facing the opponent's goal, and surprisingly, then he easily bypasses attempts to reverse press.

This may be due to the fact that Rice is not generally accustomed to possession stages; from his promotion to the first team with Slaven Bilic in 2017 until now, West Ham have relied on a style of reaction and reservation at home for most of the time, except for the 18 months he spent with Pellegrini between 2018 and 2019, which was unsuccessful.

Perhaps Rice will shine with City or Arsenal, and perhaps he will find himself the right abilities to serve a tactical context that is contrary to what he is used to. That must have been said when Maguire was wanted by everyone in England as well, Manchester United must have hoped to quickly adapt to chaos, high defensive lines and sprints in space, and Rice might have been different, and perhaps his success with a manager like Southgate would be a good enough sign. The question is: is there perhaps one in the world worth risking £120m?

Context without numbers

What really impresses Rice is his amazing journey at West Ham Academy, his personal qualities that many have experienced in the Richmond neighborhood since his childhood, his strong attachment to his family, his quest to help childhood friends and, most importantly, his steel personality that became clear to everyone from the very first moment. In short, everything that numbers cannot measure.

🚨 Man City are now considering a move for Celta midfielder Gabri Veiga after pulling out of the Declan Rice deal. His release clause is €40m and Liverpool and Chelsea are also interested.

(Source: @FabrizioRomano) pic.twitter.com/LoH7q5ZpR8

— Transfer News Live (@DeadlineDayLive) June 28, 2023

At seventeen, Rice was not only playing for the Under-21s at West Ham Academy, he was the captain of that team. Bilic talks about great literature, Koval talks about taking responsibility, Tony Carr, former director of the academy, believes that psychological and mental pressure increases his brightness and brilliance, and Alan Irvine, the current technical director of the academy and Moise's former assistant, believes that the man who started his career as a heart defender is capable of playing a more advanced role than even the pivot! (14)

Everyone talks about the perfect balance between self-confidence and humility, and most importantly, Rice's career did not go in a straight line rising from beginning to end, but rather witnessed some difficult early tests that he managed to overcome with mental hardness that is enviable to those of his age; his departure from the Chelsea academy and having to say goodbye to all his friends, then his permanent play with those who exceed him in age and size throughout the junior stages, then his transition from defense to midfield, and his quick adaptation to Bilic, then Moyes and then Pellegrini Then Moyes again, and of course he took up the Hammers captaincy at the age of twenty-two. (14)

These personal characteristics in particular have become the most important thing that the big clubs are looking for, and perhaps the main reason that led them to overlook the difference in the tactical and statistical context, and the illogical exaggeration of the price of the player by West Ham, because these clubs expect that his personal qualities will allow him to overcome the expected difficulties, whether tactical and technical on the field or social and humanitarian in the dressing room.

That was the highlight of Klopp's eye at McAllister before signing him, but the highlight of Rice is the fact that he doesn't act like a centre-back turned midfielder, but rather like a midfielder who started his career as a centre-back by mistake. (15) This is evident in his unconscious behavior with and without the ball, on top of what Norwegian professor Geir Gordt defines as "attempts to visually clear the field" (Scanning), which means the player's attempts to explore the blind side of his visual circumference in the ten seconds before receiving the ball, which gives him a better perception of his surroundings; the possibility of being pressured upon receipt, the vacant spaces to start in, the potential passing options, and the extent to which the attack is all developable. (16)

Arsenal expect Declan Rice deal to be 100% agreed today or tomorrow — the club is working to get it sealed within 24/48 hours. It's more than close now. 🚨 ⚪️🔴 #AFC

All parties discussing on key details as the agreement looks imminent. pic.twitter.com/u8cGRVDlZd

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) June 28, 2023

Jordt, a professor at the Norwegian School of Sports Sciences, has been teaching scanning since 1998 as one of the early pioneers of the field, and Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard are believed to be the best players in the competition at the time by this standard. Interestingly, Rice is not far from them, as Sky analyst Adam Byte was able to observe him doing the operation 6 times in just 8 seconds while preparing for a counter-attack against Crystal Palace in the 2021-2022 season, which ended with a goal. The average is 4 times in 10 seconds by the way, but it depends on the context of the game, of course. (16)

That – Rice's ability to visually scan the pitch with continuity and quality – may be one of the most important reasons why Arteta, Tuchel and Guardiola believed he would succeed in a proactive style of play, relying on initiating the ball and without it, but again, "may" not be enough to risk such a sum.

Interestingly, Rice still needs to develop some of his key skills for which he is praised, on top of which are his long balls, which, despite their accuracy, are flawed by their slow high trajectory that loses them any ability to surprise, and his running technique during possession, which relies on an inconsistent combination of strong thrust of the ball accompanied by relatively short steps, in addition to his overreliance on his strong right foot for interventions, instead of using the foot closest to the opponent as the rule stipulates. (17)

Does that make him a 100 million player? Of course not. In fact, we don't know — and we don't think anyone knows — what a 100 million player really looks like, because most of those deals fail, or at least, don't meet expectations. Does that make him guilty? Of course not. Does that make West Ham guilty? Actually, we don't know. West Ham are nothing more than a link in the chain of the transfer market craze, they are not the ones who invented that rule, and they certainly will not be the last to base on it.

The glaring fact that every new deal confirms is that the shift is complete, that the transfer market has become a place where "maybe", "may" and "may" be sold, and that the only reason West Ham are able to ask for £120m at Declan Rice is not the reality of what he has already offered, but the prospect of what he may offer in the future.

________________________________________

Sources:

• 1- A mistake worth 100 million euros. Why do big deals fail in football? – Island
• 2- How did Declan Rice become an elite midfielder? – The Athletic
• 3- Global or overestimated? Is Declan Rice worth 100 million? – Goal
• 4- The meaning of the expression "Blow something out of the water" – Collins Dictionary
• 5. What does "Blow something out of the water" mean? – Language Humanities
• 6- Reese Oxford on his crisis with 'supernatural expectations' at West Ham – Talksport
• 7. West Ham's lost talent dreams of returning to England – The Daily Mirror
• 8 - Arsenal make improved offer to sign Rice for £105m – The Athletic
• 9 - Manchester City make official offer to sign Rice – The Athletic
• 10- Why does everyone want to sign Declan Rice? – The Analyst
• 11- How to Lie Using Statistics by Darrell Hav – Amazon
• 12 - Declan Rice: Arsenal and City want him for these reasons – The Athletic
• 13- Acquisition rates for Premier League teams in 2022-2023 season – Transfermarkt
• 14- The moment when Rice's teammates and coaches knew he was special! – The Athletic
• 15- Why is Liverpool signing McAllister and what does he give to Jürgen Klopp? – The Athletic
• 16 - Rice turned into a full-fledged midfielder at West Ham thanks to visual scanning, tackles and carrying the ball – Sky Sports
• 17- "Boldness is not good".. Van's advice to Ibrahim Al-Abyad – Al Jazeera