Behind the warm diplomatic accolades between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London on February 8, serious arms talks are being played out behind the scenes.

Executives of British defense companies are currently in talks with Kyiv to allow the manufacture of British-designed weapons and military vehicles on Ukrainian soil, the Telegraph reported in its Feb. 11 edition.

British emissaries have already gone there to study the creation of joint ventures which would build these materials under license, according to the British newspaper.

Such an agreement would give a serious boost to the already close defense relations between the two countries.

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Zelensky's surprise visit to London: Rishi Sunak promises to continue supporting Ukraine © AFP

A privileged Anglo-Ukrainian relationship

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the United Kingdom has indeed spared no effort to show its support for Ukraine.

Diplomatic support first.

Boris Johnson, then Prime Minister, had visited Ukraine twice.

Then his successor, the current head of government Rishi Sunak, also made the trip shortly after his arrival in Downing Street.

But also with strong military support.

London became the first European military contributor to Ukraine with a promise to deliver 14 Challenger 2 tanks in mid-January, before Germany announced a week later to deliver 14 Leopard 2 tanks. The head of the British government is went further by paving the way for the possible supply of fighter planes, a big request from Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We have been clear for a long time that when it comes to providing military aid to Ukraine, nothing is ruled out", and aircraft deliveries "are of course part of our discussions", has declared the British leader during the joint press conference on February 8 alongside the Ukrainian president.

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London is far from the only European partner to send arms to Ukraine.

Similar negotiations with other European countries are also in the pipeline, the daily abounds.

But it seems that the UK is preferred by the Ukrainian authorities.

"It is the main candidate because of the very close military cooperation between Great Britain and Ukraine which started under Boris Johnson - who has remained very popular in Ukraine - and which continued under Rishi Sunak", opines Huseyn Aliyev, specialist in Russia.

It must be said that Paris and Berlin, also engaged in this arms race, have not shown the same eagerness.

By delaying in agreeing to the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks, Germany showed some reservations about the idea of ​​greater involvement in the war in Ukraine.

As for France, Emmanuel Macron's remarks made in June that Russia should not be "humiliated" may have stung the Ukrainian president.

Moreover, the armament proposed by Paris did not meet kyiv's expectations, assures Huseyn Aliyev.

Washington's green light

For all the strength of the Anglo-Ukrainian relationship, there is no doubt that Washington remains kyiv's most important partner.

With a battalion of 31 American-made Abrams tanks, recognized as being among the most advanced machines promised for combat zones, and two billion dollars worth of weapons and military equipment, the American army is by far Ukraine's greatest military ally.

However, the White House has set itself a red line not to be crossed because Washington does not want to intensify the conflict to the point of risking a third world war.

During Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the White House, President Joe Biden firmly refused to send long-range American ATACMS missiles,

The collaboration between the United States and Ukraine is such that it cannot be excluded from the discussions that are currently taking place between Kyiv and London.

Everything suggests that kyiv has also chosen the United Kingdom to manufacture weapons on its soil because of its privileged ties with the United States.

"The special relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom was probably taken into account in Kiev's calculations because it is also a means of facilitating the involvement of the United States", assures Jeff Hawn, non-permanent researcher at the American geopolitical research center New Lines Institute.

It is likely that the United States has "already given its approval" to an arms licensing agreement between the United Kingdom and Ukraine, continues Huseyn Aliyev.

The manufacture of Western-designed weapons on Ukrainian territory would be in line with Washington's priorities.

Like its NATO allies, the United States has run out of supplies to help Ukraine faster than its defense contractors can manufacture them.

This decision is also in line with the words of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who warned on Monday that the Alliance must "increase" the production of ammunition to cope with the many depleted stocks.

This agreement with British companies is the “kind of thing that Washington wants to see”, continues Jeff Hawn.

"Because it would allow Ukraine to remain in the Western sphere of defense and make it more self-sufficient at a time when Kiev has depleted US stocks more than they had expected."

Producing Western weapons closer to the front lines "would also significantly ease the logistical burden inherent in the massive flow of US weapons across Europe," Huseyn Aliyev said.

That said, "the United States is unlikely to share classified technology behind some of its most sophisticated weapons, such as military drones, with Ukraine," warns Huseyn Aliyev.

"The deal would instead be for artillery and armored vehicles."

And to continue: "This should not necessarily be considered as an escalation of the conflict but above all as a step to simplify logistics."

There is no doubt that the Ukrainians "could gain a lot from having Western-quality weapons on their own soil without having to depend on these infrequent deliveries from their Western partners", underlines Huseyn Aliyev.

The shortage of ammunition is one of kyiv's main concerns.

To obtain supplies of artillery ammunition, Ukraine and its partners have recourse to South Korea and Pakistan.

Complicated logistics, not to mention that Russia has a long tradition of using artillery barrages, a tactic dating back to the Tsarist era.

The Russian army also successfully illustrated itself in this area last June during the battle of Sieverodonetsk, in eastern Ukraine.

A military and economic boon

This arms license agreement will not be decisive, believes Huseyn Aliyev.

But it could offer Ukraine some serious advantages.

Many experts indeed agree that anything that will allow Ukraine to get its hands on a greater number of weapons is valuable for its army.

Especially in the current context.

"At the moment, Ukraine is still largely overtaken by Russia in the arms race", notes the researcher.

And not only when it comes to heavy weapons and artillery: "Russia is still far ahead of Ukraine in the number of tanks, armored vehicles, helicopters and fighter jets. It will take some time to Ukraine to catch up. Although Russia also suffers from

a lack of components imported from the West for the construction of its military weapons.

It can certainly count on imports from China, but they are not at the same level."

In addition to the military windfall, the manufacture of weapons could prove to be very profitable from an economic point of view.

Ukrainian territory is well suited for the manufacture of defense equipment.

Its highly developed industry under the Soviet era left it with vast infrastructures.

"Ukraine had a vast military-industrial complex in the days of the USSR, which suffered greatly after the Cold War as the country lost its main customer and was subsequently plundered by Russian oligarchs. But Ukraine still has good infrastructure to install a long-term military-industrial base," says Jeff Hawn.

A licensing deal with a country like the UK would be a "great opportunity" for Ukraine's war-torn economy, Huseyn Aliyev said.

Ukrainian manufacturing could also start outside Ukrainian territory.

The Ukrainian workers would then have to go to an allied neighbour.

"I expect Ukrainian production to start in Poland near the border and then move to Ukraine when the country becomes more secure as the conflict nears an end," said Huseyn Aliyev. opportunity to deploy smaller-scale production now on Ukrainian soil, easier to conceal and move. And the researcher concludes: "At a later stage in the war, we can expect to see large-scale production scale and more high-tech on Ukrainian soil."

A text adapted from the original in English by Aude Mazoué.

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