Iraq is preparing for its fifth electoral experiment since 2005, which is of particular importance this time because it is early elections that came after widespread protests that erupted in October 2019 to demand reform.
The Electoral Commission in Iraq stated that the electoral round that will take place on October 10, 2021 will be contested by 21 political alliances, while the number of participating parties is 167, including 58 within the alliances, and 3,249 candidates are competing, including 951 women.
Al-Zamili suggested that there will be no distinct electoral programs, but rather they will be the same as the previous programs (Al-Jazeera Net)
What will distinguish the upcoming elections?
Analysts and observers believe that what distinguishes the upcoming elections from its predecessors are the circumstances and changes in the region, in addition to the new electoral law that divided the governorates into electoral districts based on districts and cities.
The representative of the "Al-Fateh" coalition, Abbas Shuail Al-Zamili, says that according to the new electoral law, the winners will be more representative of the Iraqi people, and that confidence in the political process will return through the gate of these elections.
In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, he believes that one of the most prominent features of the upcoming elections is their transparency, integrity and monitoring, whether at the international or local level, and their results will gain the confidence of the Iraqi street in the next stage.
Al-Zamili believes that there will be no distinct electoral programs, but rather they will be the same as the previous ones, as the blocs focus on their achievements to mobilize the votes of the electorate, expressing his belief that the turnout for the elections will be the same as the previous elections or less, i.e. not to exceed 50%.
Turan: The change in the elections will be slight due to many complications in the political scene (Al Jazeera Net)
Will the new election law change the political map?
The head of the Iraqi Turkmen Front, MP Hassan Turan, says that the most prominent changes in the new electoral law are the division of a single governorate into more than one electoral district, in addition to the adoption of individual candidacy, where winning the seat is according to the number of votes the candidate receives, and not depending on the votes of the list to which he belongs. to it as before.
Turan expresses to Al Jazeera Net that he believes that the change will be slight, due to the many complications in the political scene and the consolidation of parties, their media machine and their experience compared to the new emerging forces.
He warned that the insistence of large blocs on the old card and electronic counting and sorting are only attempts by those old forces to seize the upcoming parliamentary scene, and this can be avoided by adopting manual sorting with electronic and relying on the updated card only.
Cougar believes that changing the political map of the Iraqi state in the upcoming elections is almost impossible (Al Jazeera Net)
For his part, Representative Jamal Kojer (for the Kurdistan Islamic Union) says that changing the political map of the Iraqi state is almost impossible, because the big parties are now in control of the political scene, and have amended the law in line with their ambitions.
He adds to Al Jazeera Net that the new law does not change the political map, but rather it will change the mechanism for selecting candidates, and the majority of the winners will be clan members and influential people in the same constituency, and this will be the next scene.
It reveals attempts to circumvent and manipulate by some parties, where more than 154 thousand duplicate cards were seized, and there are those who want to use the regular card that was used in the previous elections to be used for fraud.
Cougar points out that the new electoral law did not participate in the preparation of the Tishreen forces (the forces of the popular movement) and it is impossible for them to benefit from it, because they are distributed over the governorates and not gathered in the electoral districts, and the political money and power of the large parties, which drew a map that ensures their survival in the scene .
Al-Ghalai confirmed that the Electoral Commission took all measures to ensure the success of the integrity of the electoral process (Al-Jazeera Net)
How to avoid the Electoral Commission previous mistakes?
The previous elections were marred by many accusations of fraud, fraud and burning of voter boxes, which prompted the current Minister of Interior Othman Al-Ghanimi to declare that they would not allow the burning or tampering of ballot boxes as happened in the past.
Electoral Commission spokeswoman Jumana Al-Ghalai said that the new Board of Commissioners formed a committee to study the previous and other elections, to find out violations and failures for the purpose of overcoming them at this stage, and several precautionary measures were taken to consolidate the electoral process, whether through electronic devices, biometric cards or short-term cards.
Al-Ghalai confirms to Al-Jazeera Net that all precautionary measures are taken in securing the warehouses through coordination with the Supreme Security Committee for the elections as well as with the Civil Defense, in addition to the rehabilitation and maintenance of all warehouses affiliated with the Electoral Commission, as well as numerous visits made by the United Nations and included most of the electoral governorate offices and centers. Including warehouses to ensure their security.
Al-Ghalai reduces fears of fraud and fraud, stressing that the devices are new and are all safe and discreet, as well as biometric cards, and the short-term card is disabled after voting ends for 72 hours.
She noted that Elections Law No. 9 of 2020 Chapter Eight Penal Provisions Article 31 punishes by imprisonment for a period of no less than 6 months, and a fine of no less than 250 thousand dinars (170 dollars) and not more than one million dinars (680 dollars) for anyone who deliberately voted in the name of others. .
Abu Ragheef revealed the assignment of about 160 experts to provide technical assistance and electoral oversight (Al Jazeera Net)
What are the duties of observers in the electoral process?
Regarding the observers' tasks and their role in maintaining the integrity of the elections, political analyst Fadel Abu Ragheef says that the work of the observers is based on respect for Iraqi sovereignty and non-interference in the electoral affairs, and their main task will be supervision, not monitoring.
Abu Ragheef reveals to Al Jazeera Net that about 160 experts may arrive - this September - 100 to provide technical assistance and electoral oversight, and there are efforts by the United Nations to make these observers work in a way that encourages the work, establishment and completion of the electoral process.
The political analyst believes that the reports of international observers will prove the legitimacy of the election results or not, as two-thirds of the observers’ reports must be positive, and if they are negative, the United Nations reserves the results, but does not cancel them unless there are systematic fraud, as happened in 2018, according to Abu Ragheef. .
They also study the percentage of voter turnout and determine their tracks.
Al-Ani believes that the practical forgery will be less this time, but the political pressures and the role of political money are greater (Al-Jazeera Net)
What are the expected results and their repercussions on the Iraqi scene after the elections?
The regional and international climate may now be heading towards settlement, and Iraq's positive relations with its surroundings may be the biggest factor in changing Iraqi policies towards broader national reconciliation and greater integration into the regional community, better investments, and a higher degree of security, according to the representative of the Iraqi Forces Alliance, Dr. Dhafer. Ani.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Ani expected that the results would be accepted as announced by the Commission, expressing his belief that the practical forgery this time may be less, but the political pressures and the role of political money is greater.
On the reflection of the election results on the Iraqi scene, Al-Ani believes that this depends on the political deal that will occur after the elections, which may be similar to what happened recently in the government of the current Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi, because there is a broader and greater consensus about a government that is close to everyone.