The government is currently preparing a new migration law, which will enter into force by the summer.
But the government is divided and the Social Democrats and the Green Party have completely different opinions on the issue.
In addition, there are significant differences of opinion between the government and the opposition on the right in the Riksdag.
Therefore, expect that the political battle over refugee policy will continue into the next election campaign.
This summer, the Parliamentary Migration Committee presented its final report.
The committee's bill has been submitted for consultation and criticized, among other things, by the Swedish Migration Board for being too vague in its wording.
At the same time, to support the continued process, the Green Party has pushed for further concessions by the Social Democrats.
These include easing of the rules for unaccompanied minors to stay in Sweden.
But after the Center Party's announcement last week that the party says no to these reliefs, there is now a lack of a majority in the Riksdag.
This is a major setback for the Green Party, and means in all probability that the government will be forced to back down.
C more restrictive
The question, however, is how this affects migration policy in general.
The Center Party is not expected to fundamentally reconsider its refugee policy, but remains positive to, for example, a generous humanitarian protection basis, which is likely to increase the number of residence permits granted.
On the other hand, the Center Party's strategy is now to distance itself from the Green Party and the Left Party in refugee policy.
This may mean that the party takes a somewhat more restrictive stance in certain concrete decisions.
The party's message about the unaccompanied minors can be seen as an expression of this.
Although new migration legislation is due to enter into force this summer, it is not yet possible to determine with certainty what it will look like and what effects it will have.
It will certainly be stricter than the Aliens Act that applied until 2015, but probably more generous than the temporary law that has applied since then.
This means that the political battle in the Riksdag will continue.
Above all, the Sweden Democrats and the Moderates want to see a much tighter refugee policy.
Given that a majority of voters also want a more restrictive policy, the opposition has to push the issue forward before the next election.
Sensitive to S
The Social Democrats are under pressure on the issue.
On the one hand, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has repeatedly said that he wants to reduce the number of asylum seekers to Sweden, on the other hand, he has also been forced to make repeated concessions to the Green Party to keep the government together.
The question is where the pain line goes for the Social Democrats: The more the party compromises with the Green Party, the greater the risk that dissatisfied voters go to the Sweden Democrats.
That the issue is politically sensitive for the Social Democrats is obvious.
A referral with several proposals that contribute to a more generous refugee policy was "sneaked out" late on Friday afternoon to minimize unwanted publicity.
These include milder requirements for relative immigration and the reintroduction of a so-called humanitarian protection basis, both measures are expected to increase the number of residence permits granted.
Right now, most of the Swedish public debate revolves around the corona crisis and its consequences.
But be sure that once the crisis subsides, the issue of migration will return to the agenda.