The conflict in Pakistan and India claimed Kashmir dramatically worsened. Following a serious suicide attack in India's controlled part of the Himalayan region in mid-February, the Indian Air Force flew an attack on Pakistani territory. He was an Islamist group that had claimed the assassination for themselves. On Wednesday, Pakistan reportedly fired the machine from the Indian pilot, who was released.
The Asia expert Christian Wagner talks with SPIEGEL about the historical roots of the conflict, the current threat of war and the prospects for a peaceful solution:
SPIEGEL: Why is the conflict breaking out right now?
Christian Wagner: There are always attacks in "Jammu and Kashmir", the Indian part of India. But this was now the hardest in 30 years. At least 40 members of the CRPF paramilitary police were killed. The suicide bomber of the terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed was a local Kashmiri from the Indian part, he drove a car loaded with explosives in an Indian troop convoy.
SPIEGEL: What do you know about the perpetrators who perpetrated the attack?
Wagner: The Jaish-e-Mohammed is an Islamist terrorist group. It wants to free the majority of Muslim Kashmir from the Indian occupation and force the connection to Pakistan. The group has been banned in Pakistan since 2002. Their headquarters should nevertheless be located in Punjab in Pakistan, in Bahawalpur. Jaish-e-Mohammed is considered an extension of the Pakistani intelligence service. Her account also includes other deadly attacks, such as the Indian parliament in 2001 and the Indian air base Pathankot in 2016.
SPIEGEL: What does the group want to achieve?
Wagner: It drives the radicalization of the local population and deliberately provokes a backlash in India. The point is to draw international attention to the smoldering conflict.
SPIEGEL: And what is driving the Pakistani secret service, which is obviously behind the attack?
Wagner: Pakistan has long been calling for a referendum on Kashmir's affiliation. This is also the case in the resolutions of the United Nations. Pakistan also criticizes Indian human rights abuses in Kashmir and insists on Kashmiri's right of self-determination.
There is also a parallel conflict between the state government in Srinagar and the government in New Delhi. The Kashmiris want to maintain their special status in India and demand an improvement in their economic situation. That's why there have been many protests. This discontent of the local population has exploited militant groups from Pakistan and are fueling them with their attacks.
SPIEGEL: On what historical basis do Pakistan and India claim claims to the Kashmir region?
Wagner: When Pakistan and India were released into independence in August 1947, there were more than 500 independent princely states in India. At that time, the rulers could decide for themselves whether they wanted to join the Indian Union or Pakistan or remain independent. Then in September 1947, led by Pakistani officers, there was an invasion of tribal warriors. They wanted to conquer Kashmir.
The then King of Kashmir in Srinagar, a Hindu, Maharajah Hari Singh, turned to New Delhi for help. In return, however, India made the accession to the Indian Union a condition. Kashmir then joined the Indian Union on October 26, 1947, India sent its troops, the tribal warriors were stopped. Thus began the first Indian-Pakistani war.
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India vs. Pakistan: confrontation with KashmirSPIEGEL: In order to end the war, the first Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, himself contributed the conflict to the United Nations. He called for a referendum to resolve the conflict. Why is not it held?
Wagner: It's not that easy. Although the war ended in 1949, the UN resolutions formulate a series of conditions under which the referendum will take place. By analogy, it is envisaged that initially all Pakistani troops have to withdraw from Kashmir. In a second step, India would have to reduce its troops to a minimum and set up an interim administration. This would then prepare the referendum and perform throughout Kashmir. Pakistan repeatedly demands the referendum, but the country is hardly prepared to take the first step and withdraw its troops from the region.
Video analysis: "The danger of war is great"
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SPIEGEL: How come the conflicting interpretations of the UN resolution between Pakistan and India?
Wagner: Pakistan as a "home of the Muslims" is a religion-based state, so the Pakistanis take it for granted that the majority of Muslim Kashmir must become Pakistani, arguing that the United Nations resolution considers Kashmir to be a controversial area. whose final affiliation must first be decided.
The Indians, on the other hand, say that Kashmir is part of the Indian Union and follows the Indian state idea in which all religions find room, including Muslims. After that, a Muslim majority province is just a sign of the secular nature of the Indian nation.
SPIEGEL: What do the Kashmiris want? Would you rather belong to Pakistan or India?
Wagner: An Indian think tank investigated this question many years ago. The result was, surprisingly, that the Kashmiris did not want to belong to either Pakistan or India. You really want to be independent. This variant does not provide for the referendum. Neither India nor Pakistan would agree with that.
THE MIRROR
SPIEGEL: How could the conflict be pacified?
Wagner: In 2007 you were very close to a solution. India and Pakistan, under President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, agreed to codify the status quo. The so-called line of control, the current dividing line, was to be converted into a so-called soft border, thus promoting trade and tourism. A bus line was set up and there was a first local border traffic regulation. However, this promising path ended abruptly with the attack on Mumbai in November 2008. Extremist forces from Pakistan, led by the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, deliberately sabotaged a possible peace agreement.
SPIEGEL: There really is no solution?
Wagner: At the moment, at least the danger of a war seems banished. The Pakistanis have released the Indian pilot. This means that India is unlikely to escalate now.
But that is no reason for reassurance. This time, the so-called red lines have been moved, which have always been true. For India bombed Pakistan on its territory for the first time, in Balakot, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. This means that if there is an attack in the Indian part of Kashmir again, the government in New Delhi might say, now we have to resort to punitive punitive measures. That would set in motion a new spiral of escalation.