The head of the British government and the leader of the Conservative Party, Teresa May, appealed to the country's political forces to unite in order to conduct brexit. The politician spoke in front of his residence in London after a vote in the House of Commons on a vote of no confidence in the current Cabinet.

“Now is the time to unite, put national interests at the center and realize the result of the referendum,” said May.

The Prime Minister added that by the time of the speech, she had already managed to hold talks with the leaders of the Liberal Democratic, Scottish National Party and the Party of Wales. As May explained, starting January 17, the leading political parties of the kingdom and high-ranking government representatives will hold meetings to work out common decisions on the implementation of Brexit.

However, the opposition Labor Party did not express willingness to negotiate with its political rival conservatives. According to May, she is “disappointed” that the Labor leader Jeremy Corbin has not yet made the decision to join this discussion.

It is unlikely that Labor will still compromise with Tories, experts say. Jeremy Corbin, speaking in parliament on the eve, said that negotiations with the conservatives would be possible only if Theresa May abandons the idea of ​​brexit without a deal.

“Most likely, Labor will not agree to an alliance with the Conservatives, at least, as long as Corbin is their leader,” said Lyudmila Babynina, head of the Center for Political Integration at the Institute of Europe, RAS.

The haste with which Theresa May began negotiations with the leaders of the parliamentary parties is understandable - by January 21, the Prime Minister should present an alternative version of the agreement with the EU.

However, experts doubt that the head of the British government will be able to do this. According to Lyudmila Babinina, even if one does not take into account political aspects, it is simply impossible to rewrite a multi-page and detailed document in a few days.

However, May is convinced that even the failure of the draft deal with the EU developed in the parliament will not be able to stop the process of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union launched at the end of the 2016 referendum. This means that brexit can occur without a deal, and the gap in trade and political relations will take place according to the toughest scenario.

  • Counting votes during a referendum on the issue of leaving the UK from the EU
  • AFP
  • © Robert Perry

"The Prime Minister has lost control"

Laborites leader Jeremy Corbin made a motion in Parliament on January 15 for a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Teresa May. On the eve of the House of Commons rejected a plan for a deal with Brussels by a record majority. Corbin called what happened to be the “biggest defeat” of the government since the 1920s.

"The Prime Minister lost control and the government lost its ability to govern," said Corbin, speaking Wednesday at the opening of the debate on a vote of no confidence in the Conservative government.

In December, Corbin had already made a proposal to resign Teresa May, but then the parliament did not consider this issue. This time the voting took place, but according to its results, the initiative of the Labor leader was rejected by the House of Commons with a small margin - 325 deputies voted to preserve the current Cabinet, 306 were against.

The last time in the history of Great Britain, a vote of no confidence was imposed on the cockpit in 1979, at the initiative of Margaret Thatcher, who eventually led the government. According to the norms of British law, in the event that the government loses the confidence of parliament, early elections are held in the country.

Commenting on Corbin’s appeal to her to resign, Theresa May said that re-election would now be contrary to the national interests of the United Kingdom. According to the Prime Minister, now there are no guarantees that a party will be able to secure a majority in parliament according to the results of the vote.

Note that Theresa May has enough opponents not only among Laborites, but also among conservatives. In December last year, a group of party members launched an initiative to remove May from the post of leader. However, the party congress did not support this proposal. According to the rules, the politician has received immunity within the party for a period of one year — during this time, the conservatives cannot repeatedly demand her resignation. However, there is still no need to talk about the development of Teresa May’s political career after Brexit - according to British media, she promised members of the same party that she would not participate in the elections of 2022 as a conservative leader.

Analysts say that now there is a paradoxical situation in the British political elites - the majority of parties and politicians do not support the actions of Theresa May as prime minister, but they do not dare to send her to resign and dissolve the current cabinet. The society shares these sentiments: according to a survey conducted by Sky TV, 53% of residents of the United Kingdom are against disbanding the current Cabinet. But at the same time, 61% of respondents are convinced that the country is in a crisis situation. 1203 British subjects took part in the survey.

“Whatever the outcome, even if the UK remains in the EU, it will be the loser - both from a political and from an economic point of view. There was a very difficult situation. Hence, such contradictory results of public opinion polls - people cannot support the actions of the government, but it is also not necessary to say that the Cabinet’s dismissal will fix something now, ”said Babynina.

  • Jeremy Corbin
  • Reuters
  • © UK Parliament / Jessica Taylor

According to experts, no one will be able to offer the UK some kind of universal plan that would suit all parties. From the point of view of Natalia Kapitonova, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Department of History and Politics of Europe and America at MGIMO, now the British society has exacerbated the contradictions that arose at the end of the last century.

“The split on the issue of European integration has existed in Britain for a long time, and it concerns not only individual parties. However, these contradictions broke out particularly strongly in the ranks of the Tories. The Conservative Party is very seriously divided on the issue of relations with the EU, and this is unlikely to help it stay in power. Laborites have similar discrepancies, but they drew conclusions from the Tory negative experience and tried to smooth out internal conflicts, ”Kapitonova explained in an interview with RT.

Exit options

Speaking about the unpredictability of the outcome of possible early elections, analysts remind that Theresa May already has her own negative experience. In 2017, the politician initiated early parliamentary elections, hoping to strengthen the position of the Tories on the eve of Brexit. However, already on the eve of the vote, it became clear that these hopes would not come true. Opinion polls conducted shortly before election day showed an increase in sympathy for Labor, while conservatives failed to improve their political rating. As a result, if before the re-election the Tories had 331 seats out of 650 in the parliament, then the conservatives received 318 mandates by a vote, while the Labor party increased its representation from 232 to 262 seats. The Conservatives lost a parliamentary majority and were forced to conclude a coalition deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

The initiation of early elections was a serious miscalculation by Theresa May, but the final failure of the current prime minister’s course followed after unsuccessful negotiations with the European Union on Brexit conditions, which ended in November last year.

The parties have prepared a final draft agreement. However, in the United Kingdom, these agreements did not cause approval. The deal was criticized by both Labor and many representatives of the Conservative Party, who believe that May made too big concessions. Thus, under the terms of the agreement, London will have to pay £ 39 billion to Brussels as compensation for its previous obligations. Another painful issue concerning the Irish border was also not resolved, since the British side rejected the idea of ​​Brussels to draw a line of customs demarcation along the Irish Sea. As believed in London, it will actually “cut off” Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom.

Preserving the previous situation, when the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains open, also does not suit the parties to the negotiations. Commenting on the statements of critics in November, Theresa May said that the British people no longer want to waste time on disputes under the terms of Brexit, but they want "the correct execution of their will."

However, political analysts are inclined to interpret the words of May as follows: London simply has no alternatives and no room for maneuvering in negotiations with Brussels.

According to Lyudmila Babinina, Theresa May’s attempts to rewrite the terms of the deal and agree with the party leaders are unlikely to lead to serious progress. The European Union is fully satisfied with the terms of the deal, and European leaders have already explicitly stated that they do not intend to go for its revision.

If the European authorities do not soften their approach, the UK will either agree to the proposed conditions, or go on the path of “landslide” brexit, which implies a one-time break of all ties with the EU, which is equal to leaving without a deal that now threatens London. In this case, the British side will have to conclude all trade agreements from scratch. There is another option - a formal brexit, in which the country will retain all trade and economic relations with the EU, but will lose the right to vote in the pan-European authorities. Jeremy Corbin suggests such a scenario, and this path also has quite a few supporters in the United Kingdom, explained Natalya Kapitonova.

  • Reuters
  • © Clodagh Kilcoyne

"There are chances to come to power"

No matter how much Tory wants to present the case as if all responsibility for failures in the Brexit negotiations lies personally with Teresa May, in fact, the point about the Brexit referendum was included in the Conservative Party's election manifesto during the 2015 campaign.

“It helped the conservatives win the election, but then Cameron could not dissuade society from this idea, as he had hoped. Characteristically, he resigned almost immediately after the Brexit vote results became known, went into the shadows, ”Kapitonova reminded.

Therefore, to avoid harsh criticism of the Conservative Party will now be very difficult, experts say. Amid the failures of Tory, the popularity of the Labor Party, which from the very beginning opposed Brexit, is growing.

“Laborites will now support half the country, since they are pursuing a policy of preserving relations with the EU. Opponents have already begun to “drown” Corbin, he is heavily criticized, but his popularity is still growing, as are the ratings of the Labor Party as a whole, ”said Natalia Kapitonova.

According to the expert, in the next parliamentary elections Laborites can further strengthen their positions.

Ludmila Babynina adheres to a similar point of view.

“More and more Britons listen to Labor, and the Brexite story does not add to the popularity of conservatives. Therefore, in the future, Laborites have chances to come to power, given that Corbin is a bright politician and enjoys certain support in society, ”concluded Babynina.