What is happening in Gaza now will not remain inside it, but its effects will spread to the entire Middle East. Wars always play a major role in reshaping the regional and global balance of power, as happened after the twentieth-century world wars. So did the 1967 and 1973 wars between Israel and the Arab states, as well as the second Gulf War in the early 17s, which reshaped the Arab regional order that later became weaker and more divided. In each of these wars, the balance of power is reshaped again, whether by the rise or fall of another. Israel's current war on the Gaza Strip, which has been under siege for <> years, will have enormous implications for the region for years to come.
In fact, it is not Israel or Hamas who will lose from the current war, but the United States and its allies in the region, especially Egypt and Jordan, which are suffering from difficult economic and social conditions. The United States has rushed to provide blind support to Israel militarily, politically, and diplomatically, without considering the consequences for its interests in the region or those of its allies. If U.S. support for Israel is not new — but dates back decades in which Washington spent nearly $260 billion (inflation — to arm Israel — US President Joe Biden's rush to provide support so strongly and quickly to Israel is unprecedented in the two countries' relations. In doing so, he has put America's interests in the region at serious risk, and conditioned his political future on the future of Benjamin Netanyahu, who ended politically after the attacks of October 2023, <>.
Many Arab residents now view the United States as a key partner in the ongoing retaliation and collective punishment of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip for the crimes currently being committed against them by Israeli forces. It was therefore not surprising to see protests in Baghdad, Amman, Beirut, and other Arab capitals, and attempts to reach U.S. embassies in these countries. This prompted Washington to evacuate its staff from some countries - such as Lebanon - immediately, and to warn its citizens to be cautious throughout the Middle East because of the possible repercussions of the war on them.
Consequences for Egypt and Jordan
Egypt and Jordan – America's most important allies in the region – will suffer the consequences of the current war for years to come. Egypt is facing a difficult economic situation due to the unprecedented rise in external debt, which exceeded $ 165 billion, along with high inflation rates, increasing poverty rates, and the deterioration of the middle class. Therefore, Egypt will not be able to bear any additional burdens if Palestinians are forced to resort to it to escape Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Cairo fears that the current war on Gaza will lead to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and their settlement in Sinai, which will have significant security, political and strategic repercussions.
Instead of becoming a stabilizing force in the region, its blind and unlimited support for Israel has turned it into a source of instability. This could inflame the region and lead it towards an uncertain future.
Before the current war, Sinai was already outside the control of the Egyptian government, which had been fighting armed groups and militias for a decade without decisive success. Thus, the presence of anti-Israel resistance groups in Sinai would mean clashes between the two sides, and the possibility of Egyptian involvement in these clashes, similar to the ongoing situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Moreover, there is considerable public pressure on the Egyptian government to open the Rafah crossing with Gaza to send humanitarian aid to the besieged Palestinians, who are currently suffering from Israeli bombardment that has killed more than 8000,20000 people, injured more than <>,<> others, and displaced hundreds of thousands inside the besieged enclave.
Jordan is no better; the country has faced difficult economic and social conditions over the past decade due to rising prices, low incomes, rising unemployment, and low government performance amid frequent cabinet changes. Jordanian popular support for Palestinians is the highest among Arab countries, primarily because more than a third of Jordan's population is of Palestinian origin, displaced in 1948 when Israel was founded. This may explain Jordan's position on the current war in Gaza, where official rhetoric has become clearer in rejecting collective punishment of Palestinians in Gaza and calling for an immediate ceasefire due to concerns about the internal consequences of escalating the war. This may have been one of the reasons behind the cancellation of the planned quadrilateral summit, where US President Joe Biden was supposed to meet with Jordan's king, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, after Biden's visit to Tel Aviv on October 18.
Even more surprising, although Egypt and Jordan are among the first Arab countries to establish relations with Israel, the two countries have seen widespread protests against Israel's aggression on Gaza in recent weeks. In Egypt, where the current regime has suppressed all protests over the past decade, streets and mosques have seen massive demonstrations in support of Palestinians and against Israel's imposition on Gaza, including blockades, hunger and collective punishment. Traditionally, people who take to the streets for Palestine now will return to the streets in the future to overthrow the regime, as happened with Hosni Mubarak, who allowed demonstrations in 2003 to protest the U.S. invasion of Iraq and whose rule ended several years later when people revolted against him in 2011. Similarly, in Jordan, the country is concerned that the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza could spark street protests criticizing the regime's failure to prevent conditions in the region from deteriorating. Jordan has seen several protests over the past decade over difficult economic conditions or calls for political reform.
Therefore, instead of becoming a stabilizing force in the region, its blind and unlimited support for Israel has turned it into a source of instability. This could inflame the region and lead it towards an uncertain future. The Middle East after October 7 will certainly not be the same.