On the morning of the first Sunday of October, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) carried out a suicide attack in the heart of the capital, Ankara, near the parliament building, on the day of the start of the new legislative year, carrying internal and possibly external messages.
Semantics
The attack was the first of its kind in the Turkish capital in at least seven years, and the Interior Ministry's Security Directorate building was chosen close to the Grand National Assembly (parliament).
The timing of the terrorist attack seemed carefully chosen to coincide with the morning of the opening day of the second legislative year of the Turkish parliament in its 28th session, when President Erdogan was scheduled to deliver a speech to members of parliament.
The attack also chose a security target, the Security Directorate of the Ministry of Interior in the heart of the capital, Ankara, close to the parliament and a number of ministries and government institutions, if we add to all of the above the method of attack, which was a suicide operation where one of the attackers blew himself up at the entrance to the Security Directorate, the fingerprints of the PKK are clearly visible in the attack.
Apparently, unlike many previous operations, the separatist organization was quick to claim responsibility for the attack via a news website close to it.
Two Turkish policemen were wounded in the attack, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said were in good condition, while the attackers, one by blowing himself up and the other by police officers at the Security Directorate, were killed.
The attack in its timing attempts to disrupt the start of the work of the parliament in its new legislative year as a political message regarding the ability to influence the domestic political scene
Messages from whom?
Given that the operation was carried out by the PKK and seven years after the last similar attack in the capital, Ankara, it can be said that its first goal is to declare its presence and not to surrender to the efforts of the Turkish state in combating it, especially after the successes achieved by Ankara in recent years in this regard.
While the PKK was engaged in urban war with the Ministry of Interior and the Turkish military in the Kurdish-majority areas in 2015 and 2016 after the declaration of self-administrations, the Turkish interior today enjoys an advanced state of security in the apparent absence of terrorist operations and bombings. Similar operations in the last few years.
The attack in its timing also tries to confuse the start of the parliament's work in its new legislative year as a political message regarding the ability to influence the internal political scene, and perhaps the attack was from some angle in retaliation for the results of the recent elections that renewed Erdogan as president and his coalition of the majority of parliament against the declared desire of the separatist organization, as well as the idea of responding and retaliating against the recent neutralization of a good number of the organization's leaders and core cadres.
In these senses, the PKK thinks that it delivers its own messages, announces its own agenda, and tries to achieve gains directly related to it and its project, but like many terrorist and separatist organizations, it does not exceed in most of the attacks and operations they carry out to be a postman to deliver the messages of others from where they realize or do not realize, which prompts the need to read the external dimension of the attack and not be satisfied with local data.
This external dimension has been referred to by the Turkish president on more than one occasion, most recently from the United Nations rostrum, when he talked about the supporters, financiers and mentors of terrorism, and that his country will not submit to them.
Here, the timing may give signals to certain possibilities, but it is not certain, as Turkey is involved in several issues and disputes recently, and its relations with some parties are marred by tensions of varying degrees and durations.
The theoretical possibilities based on the idea of the beneficiary or tension in relations can involve a large number of parties, from Ankara's opponents and allies alike, so it is not possible to say with certainty the direction of accusing any particular external party, but the assessment of the existence of an external dimension to this type of attack is in the Turkish authorities and expresses it from time to time, and therefore the information that may be available to Ankara is provided for any analysis in this context.
Influences
Going back to the outcome of the attack and its possible effects, it can be said that it has failed and will fail to achieve any goal or gain despite the uproar it caused, which seems to be the end of what it was able to achieve.
In the details of the operation, the attackers were killed, and there were no casualties on the Turkish side, although the policemen were injured, and there were no significant material losses in the Security Directorate, so the attack did not cause direct tangible damage that could occur in similar attacks.
The aim of disrupting the convening of parliament and Erdogan's speech or trying to cancel / postpone them was not achieved either, as the session was held and the Turkish president spoke under additional security measures, and the terrorist attack was at the forefront of the axes of his speech to members of parliament, stressing that "the bastards who targeted the safety and security of our citizens did not succeed and will never succeed in achieving their goal" and that the attack "represents the last breath of terrorism."
Even the security aspect of the operation was mostly revealed in terms of permission, hints and leaks, starting with the vehicle in which the operation was carried out, which was stolen after its owner was killed, to the weapons used in the attack and their possible sources.
Externally, the attack is not expected to push Ankara to retreat from any of its positions on recent issues, from the South Caucasus to Syria, from Sweden's membership in NATO to Libya, and from Iraq to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Domestically, this type of operation usually leads to a greater circumvention around the government's counterterrorism strategy, particularly the PKK, and no change is expected to occur, but perhaps even elicit greater responses, particularly in Syria and Iraq, and quickly, and on the same day the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced airstrikes that destroyed "twenty targets of the terrorist organization" in northern Iraq in what appeared to be an initial response to the attack.
Turkey has been waving for some time now the need for a new military operation in northern Syria to eliminate some pockets and loopholes used by the YPG or the Syrian Democratic Forces to attack the Turkish interior.
Defense Minister Yasar Guler recalled at the reception of parliament Erdogan's speech "We will come to you one night without warning," which he used to repeat to threaten a new military operation in Syria, while some behind the scenes of Ankara talk about the possibility that Syria is the source of the weapons used.
Such details, if confirmed, will support Ankara's narrative regarding its right to launch a new operation in northern Syria, and reduce the objections it faces, especially since it has won positions of support and support from various parties, including the West.
This does not necessarily mean that the operation is very close, but its motives and justifications are increasing again and the need for it is confirmed, at least for Ankara, but the response could include a range of measures, including neutralizing leading elements of the PKK and its Syrian extensions, bombing SPF centers and positions in Syria, and similar operations in Iraq as mentioned above, while keeping the threat of the operation.
Therefore, in conclusion, Ankara's attack may have made a disturbing noise, but it does not seem that it has been able or will be able to achieve any significant goals, neither in the near term nor in the long-term strategy, but may even provoke Turkish responses contrary to those envisaged by the attack and those behind it.