Analysts and experts polled by Beyond the News program agreed on Algeria's initiative to resolve the Niger crisis, considering it a "suitable ground" to build on and reach a diplomatic solution that avoids the repercussions of military intervention in the region.
However, they saw the proposed transitional period as less than the necessary issues and a return to constitutional civilian rule in the country, arguing that this initiative is "flexible" and opens the way for the various parties to agree on an appropriate vision for a diplomatic solution.
These opinions came during the episode devoted by the program "Beyond the News" on (2023/8/29) to Algeria's announcement of an initiative to resolve the crisis in Niger, consisting of 6 axes and based on a transitional period of 6 months, led by a civilian figure agreed upon to achieve arrangements in which everyone participates.
Niger's coup leaders had maintained a state of alert in the ranks of the armed forces, while Paris warned after the expiration of the deadline to expel its ambassador in Niamey of what it called the path of confirmed disaster in Niger, and the risk of security collapse in West Africa.
The episode "Beyond the News" questioned the most prominent elements of the Algerian initiative, the extent of its success in providing a compromise that meets the demands of the parties concerned with the crisis, the significance of the coup leaders maintaining a state of high alert in the ranks of the army in parallel with their continued escalation against Paris, and the accuracy of France's warnings of the possibility of a security collapse in West Africa.
Flexible and open
Speaking behind the news, Dr. Hosni Abedi, a professor of international relations at the University of Geneva, believes that the Algerian initiative is flexible and can be improved and enriched in order to be open to all parties, and has succeeded in restoring the dynamic of diplomacy and negotiation, pointing out that it is characterized by maintaining the basic principle of non-recognition of the military coup.
He considered reducing the transitional period to help reduce the period of military stay in power, and can be considered a minimum that begins with the military leaving power, contrary to what the putschists proposed to be 3 years, but reaching a peaceful transition to civilian rule requires more time, he estimated.
In this context, Abedi believes that it is difficult to hold an extensive national dialogue in which all parties participate in this short term, and that the strength of the initiative is to block the way to the legitimacy of military intervention, pointing out the need for military acceptance of it, even if in principle.
The professor of international relations considered that the French position is in a difficult situation, as the interior sees that Paris has lost most of its areas of influence in Africa, and there is disappointment with Western positions on the developments of the crisis, which prompted France to escalate the language and adopt unfair rhetoric against Niger and the Sahel.
Difficult adventure
Meanwhile, Nigerien academic and political analyst Dr. Ali Yacoub justifies the coup leaders keeping the state of alert among the armed forces by saying that there have not yet been responses to the Algerian initiative that was put forward hours ago, so it is difficult to risk leaving the field and be careful.
Speaking beyond the news, he believes that the Algerian initiative can be built upon, but it is difficult to accept the transitional period mentioned in it, as he believes that the reforms the country needs require a period of one and a half to two years, and therefore Yacoub does not expect the military council or the Nigerien people to accept that period.
The Nigerien political analyst considered Paris' warning of a "certain disaster" in Niger nothing more than media propaganda through which it seeks to raise international concerns after it found that the matter is slipping out of its hands, denying that Niger will be a disaster in any case.
Hamida Initiative
Paul Ijimi, a former ECOWAS strategic studies officer, described Algeria's initiative as "benign", saying it came at an opportune time to ease tensions, explaining that all internal and external parties should listen to it.
Speaking beyond the news, he said that Algeria, Niger's neighbor, has played an influential role in various developments in the Sahel, and putting forward the initiative will open the door to facilitating the path of a diplomatic solution, calling on all parties to take advantage of this opportunity.
But he added: "Let's be realistic, 6 months, what will it benefit from? Could there be elections or will it be someone else's appointment?" , arguing that the appropriate and acceptable transition period can be between one and a year and a half.
Egimi said he understood Paris' tough stance on its refusal to leave the French ambassador to Niger, because in that case it would be difficult to restore diplomatic relations in the near future.