The events in Niger, a state of 25 million in West Africa, which a week ago blew up the world information space with news of a military coup in the country and the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum, are rapidly turning into a security crisis in one of the strategic regions of the Black Continent.
The history of post-colonial Africa knows dozens of coups, when the army leadership in the most disadvantaged countries in critical situations took over the functions of crisis management of the state.
That is what is happening in Niger today.
The commander of the Presidential Guard, General Abdurahman Tchiani, who headed the National Council for the Salvation of the Motherland on July 26, is actively meeting with religious and public leaders, representatives of the business community of Niger, and also appointing new heads of regions led by brigadier generals.
It is fundamentally important to note that despite all the growing internal drama and internationalization of the crisis in Niger, which is becoming world history, so far the military coup is taking place bloodlessly. Not a single shot was fired in the country, and not a single hair fell from the head of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. He is not in prison, but in his residence, feels good and has the opportunity to keep in touch with the outside world.
However, blood — and a lot of blood — can be shed in Niger and beyond. This is confirmed by the hasty evacuation of French and Italian citizens from the country, whose example other European states are ready to follow.
Given that the military scenario of an attempt to return to power the unpopular pro-Western President Bazuma has not been completely removed from the agenda, the threat of a civil war and the escalation of an internal conflict into a conflict between neighboring African states remains real.
The 15 states of the region, members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which gathered for an emergency meeting in neighboring Nigeria, have already announced the imposition of tough sanctions against Niger and put forward an ultimatum to the new authorities: to restore the power of the ousted President Bazoum within a week. At the same time, they did not rule out the use of "any measures". Everyone guesses that "any measures" refers to the military intervention of ECOWAS in Niger.
However, how realistic is such a scenario? It will be very difficult to implement it, and instead of one crisis in Niger, several crises and conflicts may arise at once, when one part of Africa begins to fight with another part of it.
Of the 15 members of ECOWAS, four (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and now Niger) are themselves under sanctions. Moreover, the authorities of Mali and Burkina Faso, neighboring Niger, issued a joint statement expressing support for the country's new leadership. They warned against any foreign interference, warning that if it did happen, it "would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Mali and Burkina Faso."
In the event of a military intervention in Niger, both countries - Mali and Burkina Faso - threaten to withdraw from ECOWAS, which could be the beginning of the collapse of the organization.
In a joint statement, they also declared the inadmissibility of "illegal and inhuman sanctions against the people and authorities of the Niger" and expressed "fraternal solidarity with the people of Niger, who have decided to take responsibility and take their destiny into their own hands."
If we talk about who in ECOWAS has the real ability to conduct a full-scale military intervention in Niger, then this is the only country - Nigeria, which has an army of 200,<>. But with Nigeria itself, everything is far from so simple. The country is immersed in numerous problems of its own, one of which is a long-term war with radical Islamists, in fact, a civil war.
Let's move on. The area of Niger is five times larger than the area of neighboring Nigeria. In addition, there are currently 300,<> Nigerian refugees in Niger.
And finally, one more important factor.
In power in Nigeria is President Bola Tinubu, who led the country quite recently - in May of this year, but has already managed to antagonize a significant part of society by carrying out unpopular reforms that caused a sharp rise in prices.
In addition, he quarreled with the local security forces, as recently as June, having carried out a change in the leadership of the security forces.
Unpopular in his own country, Bola Tinubu cannot help but realize that the subsequent events in Niger could trigger future upheavals in Nigeria.
Taking over the chairmanship of ECOWAS just two weeks before the coup in Niger, President Tinubu said that West Africa, where several military coups have taken place since 2020, will not tolerate another coup.
But the events in Niger threw him a new challenge: to act as it should be, everyone is looking at Nigeria, but actions are fraught with such risks and such shocks, compared to which the story of Mohamed Bazoum, who is under house arrest in his residence, will seem like flowers.
Moreover, jihadists operating on the African continent, and in particular in West Africa, can take advantage of the situation. For them, the events in Niger, fraught with intra-African conflict, can be a royal gift - a signal of the right moment to intensify their actions throughout the continent.
Is it possible that the former metropolis of France, for which the events in Niger were a severe blow to its image and positions on the African continent, will decide to carry out a military action to return President Bazoum, who is convenient for her? In their statements in connection with the events in Niger, the French authorities deny this possibility.
However, never say never.
The situation remains unpredictable, and the reason for a military operation may arise at any moment. This reason may be the incident with French citizens in Niger, requiring Paris to take action to protect them. In addition, after the collapse of the colonial system and the emergence of young independent states, the former metropolis of France has a wealth of experience in military interventions in Africa.
The United States has the same experience of interventions in Africa, which demands the return to power of President Bazoum, but does not dare to challenge the new military authorities of Niger.
Of course, for Paris, for Washington, and for the West as a whole, the sudden loss of Niger, which looks more and more real, will create another pain and another serious geopolitical problem for several reasons.
First, after the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso and the withdrawal of French troops from there, it was Niger that became the country in which the largest French contingent in the region was deployed, which includes 1,5 thousand troops.
It is not known whether the French military will now remain in Niger or leave, as they previously left Mali and Burkina Faso, it will depend on many factors.
As for the United States, they have created two of their military bases in Niger, where more than 1 thousand American troops are stationed and there are drones capable of flying as far as North Africa. Military units of Germany and Italy are also located in Niger.
The second factor, which is much talked about after the military coup in Niger, is the strategic uranium deposits located on the territory of this country, which France has traditionally used at its nuclear power plants. According to a number of experts, the change of power in Niger may create new problems for French nuclear scientists, in particular, lead to an increase in prices for nuclear fuel for French nuclear power plants.
If we talk about the situation as a whole, the events in Niger have become another wake-up call for the neo-colonial policy of the West on the continent. Its meaning has always been to keep in its orbit ineffective managers who do not bother to defend national sovereignty, but are ready to remain completely loyal to their external sponsors.
And today this system is collapsing before our eyes.
"It's a disaster. If the fourth coup is confirmed, then all democracy in West Africa will be in danger, because then the fourth coup could be followed by a fifth, and the fifth by a sixth, "laments the Prime Minister of Niger, Uhumoudou Mahamadou, commenting on the events in his country while in France. Indeed, since 2020, there have already been coups in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso.
It is likely that Prime Minister Mahamadou is right: Niger is not the end of history. Who's next?
The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.