The situation in Venezuela is at the bifurcation point. Maduro decided to start negotiations with the rebels. To date, all geopolitical positions have been determined: the Atlantic bloc (the United States, Western European countries and their satellites in other parts of the world) is in favor of the liberal pro-American self-proclaimed President Juan Guaido; all countries that are on the side of multipolarity (above all, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, etc.) support the legitimate president, Nicolas Maduro. Another giant of multipolarity - India - takes a neutral position, emphasizing that the issue should be resolved by the citizens of Venezuela without any external intervention.
It should be noted that in the case of Maduro, the positions of the atlantists and globalists, represented most clearly by Macron and Merkel, coincide with Trump's anti-communist inclinations. True, building a wall with Mexico and at the same time calling for the revival of the Monroe Doctrine, which considers Latin America as a zone of exclusive control of the United States, to put it mildly, inconsistently. But this is Donald Trump - everyone is used to it. In general, the West appears in this case as consolidated as in relation to other “color revolutions” - the Ukrainian “Maidan”, the “Arab Spring” (including Syria), etc.
All these “color revolutions” have a common structure. They begin with a critical accumulation of problems in governing the country, and it does not matter whether the authoritarian dictator is at the head or simply a corrupt official. There are always enough problems in any country, and very often politicians cannot (and sometimes just don’t want) to solve them. Another thing is how to organize and direct the protest potential, whether to provide external support, how to increase social anger, and to what symbolic goal to direct it. At this stage geopolitics comes into play: globalists and atlantists use this situation to their advantage, supporters of multipolarity that are gradually gaining strength in some cases try to repulse these processes (sometimes, as in Syria, quite successfully).
Everything is exactly the same in Venezuela. Maduro is the heir of Hugo Chávez, who was not just a charismatic leader, but also a staunch opponent of world hegemony, sharing the ideology of left-wing Peronism and geopolitical sovereignty, adapted for Venezuela by the anti-globalist philosopher Norberto Ceresol. Maduro himself continues on the whole course of Chávez, but he has no great interest in the ideology. Nor can he cope with the normalization of the economic and social crisis in the country. Calling Maduro a successful politician is impossible even with all the antipathy towards his liberal opponents, supported by hegemony. But still, Maduro is heading towards confronting US pressure, is desperately trying to maintain a focus on multipolarity and, despite pressure from the liberals, does not part with the idea of social policy. Therefore, Maduro has become a convenient target for globalists and liberals: it combines the rejection of the unquestioning obedience of hegemony and a rather unsuccessful practical policy.
In recent years, Russia and China have provided Venezuela with substantial financial support. But this was not enough. On the other hand, at the pole of the liberal opposition there is not only comparable and even superior support from the United States and Western European countries, but also ideology, as well as excellent organizational management, based on classical and effective schemes of “color revolutions”.
Multipolarity has not yet reached the level of ideological understanding and design, and compromises with liberalism in Russia itself, and partly in China and Iran, do not allow Maduro to provide effective ideological assistance and promote successful socio-political management. Now this weak side of a multipolar club makes itself felt particularly clearly. But Maduro has his trump cards: the political legacy of Chávez, the loyalty of the army and the support of the country’s rural population.
The situation has now reached a critical point. In the very near future, it will be determined by what scenario the events will go: whether local liberals can rely on atlantists who have already recognized President Juan Guaiido to overthrow the legitimately elected President Maduro (as in the case of Viktor Yanukovych), or will he manage to retain power (as in the case of with Bashar Asad). Due to the interconnectedness of all geopolitical processes, this is very important: we are talking not only about the fate of Venezuela, but also throughout Latin America. And wider - the world. The loss of the Atlanticists in Venezuela will definitively prove their weakness and give new impetus to multipolarity, which will affect other zones - in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Pacific. If they succeed in overthrowing Maduro, then this, albeit relatively, will strengthen their positions and create a hitch in the process of the formation of a multipolar camp.
With all this, the collapse of the unipolar model as a whole is predetermined. Here we are talking more about the timing of the process: it can be accelerated or delayed, but cannot be canceled or stopped. However, the victory of Maduro would significantly bring the death of hegemony closer.
What will Maduro do during the negotiations? He has two samples - Yanukovych and Assad. Yanukovych begins negotiations, believes the rebels and the West, and is overthrown, and later a miserable fugitive. Assad speaks with opposition to the language of force, loses ground in the first stage, but with the help of proper geopolitics (reliance on Russia and Iran, as well as a thoughtful strategy of relations with Turkey and the Kurds with total neglect of atlantist and Islamist demands) later, in the course of a bloody civil war turns out to be a winner. Yanukovych - a cowardly failure. Assad is a difficult and bloody, but heroic way to victory. Syrian Islamists are a direct analogue of the Venezuelan liberals. These are terrorist networks following orders from an external control center. Asad understood this. Is Maduro aware enough?
Soon we will find out who he is, Comrade Maduro, is a helpless and stubborn corrupt official or carrier of the flame of the great continental South American revolution in the spirit of Chávez and Ceresol. Negotiations with liberals and hegemony puppets are always a loss. They do not comply with any agreements and treaties. It remains to hope that Maduro is able to read the current situation in the light of an adequate understanding of the geopolitical laws: Maduro - land, Guaido - sea. Now your word, Comandante ...
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.