The Paper Reporter Shao Bingyan Intern Guo Sihang
"This year's express delivery war seems to have not stopped, and the homogeneous competition is too fierce."
"The price war has not stopped, but the intensity is different at different stages, and the business pressure is very high."
Recently, the heads of a number of provinces and regions of Tongda express delivery companies described to the surging news reporter the business pressure under the price war. The vicious price war in the express delivery industry dates back to 2017, with the intervention of subsequent regulatory authorities and the concentrated transformation of express delivery companies to high-quality services, the price war almost ended in the second half of 2021, but since this year, local areas seem to be "at war" again, and the competition situation has further strengthened.
According to data from the State Post Bureau, the single ticket revenue of express delivery in the first half of this year was 9.31 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year. According to the August express business operation briefing recently released by four A-share express companies of SF Holding (002352), YTO Express (600233), Shentong Express (002468), and Yunda (002120), the single ticket revenue of SF Holding's express logistics business including Fengwang business increased by 8.5% year-on-year (of which the Fengwang business in the economic express sector has completed the transfer and delivery in June 96), and the single ticket revenue of express logistics business excluding Fengwang decreased by 2023.6% year-on-year. The A-share single ticket revenue of the three Tongda companies, Yuantong, Shentong and Yunda, all decreased year-on-year, of which Shentong and Yunda fell by double digits year-on-year.
In addition, the business volume of the four Tongda companies in August all achieved year-on-year growth, and only SF Express logistics business volume decreased year-on-year, a decrease of 8.3%. In terms of revenue in August, SF, Yuantong and Shentong achieved a slight single-digit increase, and Yunda's revenue fell nearly 4% year-on-year to 8.10 billion yuan.
As of the close on September 9, SF Holding reported 27.40 yuan / share, up 7.0%; YTO Express reported 74.15 yuan, up 05.2%; Shentong Express reported 1.10 yuan, up 25.0%; Yunda shares were quoted at 69.9 yuan, up 73.0%.
Local express price wars are back
The surging news reporter compared the August single ticket revenue data of SF, Yuantong, Shentong and Yunda express companies from 2018 to 2023 and found that in 8 and before, the August single ticket revenue of each express company basically showed a downward trend. In August 2021, the revenue per ticket generally rose sharply, but since the beginning of this year, the single ticket revenue of the Tongda Department has fallen again.
On the other hand, the surging news reporter also compared the single ticket revenue in the first 8 months of this year and found that the Tongda Department increased year-on-year in January at the beginning of the year, and the single ticket revenue fell month by month since March.
Specifically, in July and August, Shentong and Yunda's single ticket revenue fell by more than 7% year-on-year. Contrary to Tongda, SF Holding's revenue per ticket from January to May showed a year-on-year downward trend, but it increased significantly from June to August, and the growth rate gradually increased, reaching 8.10%, 1.5% and 6.8% respectively. Based on the data excluding Fengwang's business, SF's single ticket revenue from June to August also declined, and the decline continued to increase.
"Since the beginning of this year, the price of a single ticket has continued to fall, and a slight price drop brought about by the off-season cannot be ruled out." On September 9, the surging news reporter called Yunda as an investor, and the relevant staff said that from the perspective of the price trend of the industry, the industry's single ticket income in 26 was around three yuan, and the overall price in 2019 and 2020 was lower. In the fourth quarter of 2021, in order to protect the income of the express brother, each company raised the price by 2021.0 yuan. In 1, the unit price of the ticket showed a stable trend, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the dispatch fee subsidy was higher, and the unit price throughout the year was still relatively high. This year, prices have fallen again.
In addition, many executives admitted at recent earnings meetings that "current low-price competition still exists" and "competition volatility is expected". And remind the industry that "the market share gained from low-price competition is not sustainable and will even outweigh the loss".
What will be the impact of a resurgent price war?
Some express insiders recently told the surging news reporter that the most direct impact of the express price war is the performance of couriers and outlets with reduced dispatch fees. For the little brother, if the income remains unchanged, there are more pieces that need to be sent.
"The price war requires the headquarters to bear this part of the profit and loss." Recently, the person in charge of a province and region of a courier company told the surging news reporter that the guarantee of courier income is the key to whether the network can operate stably, and it also directly affects the profit of the company's headquarters.
"Under the price war, although there is headquarters in the circle, the outlets are definitely affected." A person in charge of a Tongda Express outlet said that it is necessary to look for customers everywhere, but which price is low, customers will go to which one, "Each sending indicator is under pressure, and how to complete the indicator so high, a month will be fined 100,000." ”
But a courier in Shanghai told reporters that its dispatch fee has not changed, and has remained at about 1 yuan in the past two years, "Originally, the current dispatch fee is low, and if it is low, there will be no one to work." ”
For the reason for the price war, an insider of the express delivery company told the surging news reporter that in recent years, many express companies have invested heavily in infrastructure to expand production capacity, if the company achieves better profits but there is a problem of overcapacity, it may lower prices in some provinces and regions, and grab volume by setting off a "price war".
The above-mentioned people further said that for the company, the amount of express delivery will reduce all kinds of costs, for example, assuming that the cost of a single ticket is 1.5 yuan, after the volume of pieces is 10% more, the cost of a single ticket may drop to 1.3 yuan, "Some will not make money, and use the cost difference to rely on 1.3 yuan to grab the volume of the same piece." ”
"The price of express delivery has increased since September last year, but it did not increase in September this year, and I hope that it can rise in October, and indeed the capacity and labor costs have increased, at least in Shanghai." A courier company's transshipment center head said.
The surging news reporter combed through the semi-annual report and found that many express delivery mentioned influencing factors such as product structure changes and the adjustment of policies and rules at the outlet stage when talking about the decline in single ticket revenue.
"At present, the national price war cannot be 'revived', and there is no such condition and foundation." Express expert Zhao Xiaomin told The Paper that the decline in express single ticket revenue in recent months cannot be simply understood as a "price war", in the past it was a complete competition for low prices, and the current decline is affected by comprehensive factors including enterprise operation, structural adjustment, product differences, and local regional product price inversion.
Regulators in some regions have also paid attention to and intervened in the low-price competition in the express delivery industry this year. On July 7, Jinhua Postal Administration and other nine departments jointly issued the "Jinhua Express Industry Compliance Guidelines". In terms of orderly competition, the Guidelines point out that express delivery enterprises should scientifically calculate operating costs, especially when providing express delivery services to operators within e-commerce platforms, and must not provide express delivery services below cost prices in order to exclude competitors or monopolize the market.
Some areas already have price adjustment plans, which are regular measures during peak periods
A number of provincial and regional leaders of Tongda express delivery companies recently told The Paper that every year in the second half of September into the peak period, the company will have some price adjustment measures. ZTO Express executives also revealed in a recent conference call that the volume of the express delivery industry in September and October will increase by less than 9% compared with July and August, and will grow again in November to enter the peak period of the year.
"Express delivery services are different from other commodity services, and seasonal changes are more obvious." Yunda Securities representative staff told the surging news reporter that the price of a single ticket will reach a peak from the fourth quarter of each year to the beginning of the next year, and the price will fall in April and May, and the trend of price changes in the industry is basically the same, but due to the different structure of each product, the unit price will be different. After entering the off-season in April and May every year, due to insufficient supply to fill the capacity demand, each company may appropriately lower the price, but by September to Double 11 and Double 12, after the industry volume is increased, each company will pass the increased cost to the market.
"At present, I have heard about the rumors of price adjustments, and it is understood that some express delivery companies also plan to raise the single ticket by 9 points to 5 Mao from the end of September." An insider of the express delivery company said, "But now we have not seen the real large-scale implementation in the market, and everyone is still waiting and seeing, after all, the amount of price increase first will definitely be less." ”
According to the research report released by Essence Securities on September 9, in the short term, it is optimistic that the price competition in the industry will ease in the fourth quarter, and the peak season sector is expected to rise in volume and price; In the medium term, it is expected that the e-commerce express delivery pattern will accelerate its differentiation, and leading companies are expected to achieve a double increase in share and profit.
"Different from the previous price war, it is expected that some companies can avoid the so-called off-season low price next year after raising the price this time, and the future express price and service quality can achieve a two-way resonance upward situation." Express expert Zhao Xiaomin told The Paper that the conventional price adjustment measures of general express companies are sent by the headquarters to each province, and then adjusted by each province according to each locality. This price increase is different from the previous centralized and unified price increase, some companies want to take the lead in tentative price increases, while others are still waiting and seeing, which is determined by each company's market share, its own development status and network structure stability.
"The low-price behavior of peers in some areas is really exaggerated, our provinces and regions are still relatively Buddhist, resolutely resist brushing, do not blindly follow, according to the digestion capacity of their own network to ensure quality and quantity, for the stability of the network will appropriately increase the code." The person in charge of a province and region of a courier company told the surging news reporter that for the province and region, this time is more about practicing internal skills, including improving the bargaining power of the client, improving the level of profitability, etc., so as to better feed back the outlets, the outlets feed back the salesman, sink step by step, so that the consumer experience can be effectively improved.
"The competition in express delivery is not just about the price of a single ticket. Consumer demand for express products is also graded. Speaking of price competition, Yunda stock agency staff said that because the e-commerce standardization market has shown a saturated state, after raising the distribution fee by one point from the single ticket in 2021, all express delivery companies jointly adhere to high-quality development and strive to value-added services and products to obtain additional income.
The above-mentioned agent staff further pointed out that there is a demand from high to low in the industry, corresponding to different levels of service, regardless of the price, there will be consumer groups. Each courier service provider has its own core customer base at different stages.