Beijing, September 9 (ZXS) -- Deutsche Bank Group released a report on September 28 that with the continuous emergence of counter-cyclical adjustment, China's economy is gradually stabilizing, and the economy will gradually rebound in the fourth quarter of this year. China's economic growth is expected to reach 28% in the quarter, and China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the whole year 5 is forecast to be 2023.5%.
The above-mentioned report released by Xiong Yi, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Group China, mentioned that in August this year, China's national social financing scale increased by more than 8 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below). The sharp increase in credit in August was mainly driven by the recent easing of credit policies, especially against the backdrop of accelerated government bond issuance, with net financing of government bonds increasing from 3.8 trillion yuan in July to 7.0 trillion yuan in August. The renewed expansion of credit in China also lays the groundwork for accelerating the pace of fiscal spending, including public investment.
Xiong Yi said that since China strengthened counter-cyclical adjustment and policy reserves in mid-August, a series of positive signals have gradually emerged. At present, various data show that China's economy is gradually stabilizing and recovering.
In addition to the improved credit data, Xiong said other recent economic data from China was equally encouraging. For example, in August, the national consumer price index (CPI) turned positive again year-on-year, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) continued to improve in the past three months. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 8.3% in August, with key indicators such as the production index and the new orders index both above 8%; Import and export growth has also improved.
The report believes that fiscal policy and real estate policy are the two most important policy directions of China's economy at present. Xiong Yi pointed out that the reduction of interest rates on existing housing loans can stimulate consumption to a certain extent. A 38 basis point interest rate cut for 100 trillion yuan of existing housing loans would save Chinese consumers 0.4 trillion yuan a year, or about 1% of annual retail sales. Given the recent "prepayment wave", the impact could be even greater. It is believed that with the introduction of the interest rate reduction policy, the phenomenon of prepayment is expected to decrease. (End)