"Resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level", "reduce the down payment ratio and the lower limit of the second home loan interest rate, and promote the reduction of the existing first home loan interest rate to achieve results"... In response to the recent hot topics in the market, the People's Bank of China once again spoke out and set the tone. According to the official website of the People's Bank of China on September 9, the Monetary Policy Committee of People's Bank of China recently held its regular meeting in the third quarter of 27 (hereinafter referred to as the "meeting"), in the view of analysts, this meeting conveyed to the market the message of positive and stable growth, stable exchange rate, and promotion of property market recovery, which helped boost the market's confidence in economic recovery.

Structural support tools are expected to be introduced

The meeting pointed out that the current external environment has become more complex and severe, international economy, trade and investment have slowed down, inflation is still at a high level, and interest rates in developed countries will continue to remain high. The domestic economy continues to recover, recovers and strengthens, but it still faces challenges such as insufficient demand.

It is necessary to increase the intensity of macro-policy regulation and control, accurately and effectively implement prudent monetary policy, do a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, focus on expanding domestic demand, boost confidence, accelerate the virtuous cycle of the economy, and provide stronger support for the real economy.

"This meeting shows that the People's Bank of China continues to be optimistic about the prospects of economic recovery, but also pointed out that it is currently in a critical stage of economic recovery, and macro policies are needed to continue to promote the accelerated restoration of economic balance." Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, commented. At present, the domestic economy is facing a complex internal and external environment, and macro policies need to balance stable growth, risk prevention, structural adjustment, and internal and external balance.

At the meeting, the People's Bank of China also mentioned that it is necessary to increase the implementation of the introduced monetary policy, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, maintain reasonable growth and steady pace of credit, and keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal economy. Promote the recovery of low prices and keep prices at a reasonable level.

At the same time, we will implement the increased re-lending and rediscount quota, implement the existing structural monetary policy tools, continue to increase support for key areas and weak links of the national economy such as inclusive finance, green development, scientific and technological innovation, and infrastructure construction, and implement comprehensive policies to support coordinated regional development. Deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, guide the service focus of large banks to sink, promote small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main business, support banks to replenish capital, and jointly maintain the stable development of the financial market.

Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research Department of JLL Greater China, pointed out that monetary policy must work with fiscal, industrial and employment policies to focus on strong coordination, synergy, and strengthening expectations, promote the continuous recovery of supply and demand, and form a policy synergy to expand domestic demand, boost confidence and prevent risks.

Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Business School, said that the core of the current economic problem is not insufficient liquidity, but insufficient consumer investment confidence leading to insufficient credit demand. The People's Bank of China proposed to "keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the growth rate of nominal economy", which also provides an observation method to predict the trend of policy.

Looking forward to the follow-up monetary policy, Zhou Maohua expects that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a combination of prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy. On the one hand, strengthen the implementation of the policies that have been introduced and promote the accelerated implementation of policies; On the other hand, we should give full play to the advantages of aggregate and structural tools, and guide the flow of financial resources to weak links and key emerging areas while maintaining the moderate and steady growth of total money and credit. He said, "Since the beginning of the year, China has implemented two RRR cuts and two interest rate cuts, and the policy is obviously ahead, coupled with the mention of structural tools at this meeting, it is expected that structural support tools will be introduced in the future."

Pang further said that the steady growth policy and counter-cyclical measures will continue to increase, improve quality and efficiency, and implement details. As the current weighted average lending rate has reached a low level, and the price level has rebounded due to the improvement of market supply and demand, the real interest rate has declined, and he believes that there is still a need to cut interest rates during the year.

Mortgage adjustment should avoid "one-size-fits-all" and "hot"

Regarding real estate finance, which is highly concerned in the industry, this conference also highlighted it.

The meeting proposed that it is necessary to accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, support rigid and improved housing demand, implement the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the newly issued first home loan interest rate policy, reduce the down payment ratio and the lower limit of the second home loan interest rate, and promote the reduction of the existing first home loan interest rate.

"Through such policy adjustments, it will help the system to create loose conditions for the housing market in an all-round way, and help further promote the healthy development of the real estate financial market." Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.

In addition, the meeting mentioned the need to increase financial support for the construction of "dual-use" public infrastructure, the transformation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing. Yan Yuejin believes that this reflects the two lines of real estate finance: one is the traditional house purchase and other fields, and the other is the emerging field, that is, the core force points such as urban village transformation. Financial support for urban village renovation is bound to be strengthened, which objectively helps to further promote the development of financing work of relevant enterprises and is also conducive to the better development of such businesses.

From "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" to reducing the interest rate of existing housing loans, the People's Bank of China has spoken out again, and various favorable policies have given the market sufficient confidence. Zhou Maohua predicted that with the help of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", it is expected that the progress of the recovery of the property market in the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate.

Pang also said that it is expected that a more powerful differentiated mortgage interest rate policy and stock mortgage adjustment policy will be implemented in the later stage, which can also reduce the cost and interest burden of residents' home purchase while easing the pressure on banks' net interest margin. However, Pang also pointed out that it must be noted that simply using monetary policy methods such as lowering mortgage interest rates cannot completely, effectively and fundamentally solve the superposition of cyclical, structural and trend problems in the real estate market. All localities should, in accordance with their actual conditions, adjust local real estate policies in a step-by-step, orderly, flexible and differentiated manner, optimize measures such as purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, transaction taxes, and residential category identification, effectively implement city-specific policies, one city, one policy per district, and categorical guidance, make full use of the policy toolbox, and implement the long-term mechanism of the real estate market to achieve a stable recovery of the real estate market.

"In order to achieve an orderly adjustment of the interest rate of existing personal housing loans in accordance with the law, it is necessary to standardize the order of loan interest rate pricing under the premise of marketization and legalization." Pang pointed out that for commercial banks, according to the specific guidelines, operating rules and their own operating conditions of relevant departments, they should accurately assess the borrower's existing mortgage interest rate, mortgage principal scale, asset quality, credit history, risk level, repayment ability, whether the house is first home or not, whether it is self-occupied, and the area of the suite, so as to clarify the standards, conditions and scope of interest rate adjustment, and implement differentiated pricing, differentiated mortgage strategy, and dynamic adjustment risk control to avoid "one-size-fits-all" and "gusts of wind" "One head hot", do a good job in the pre-loan investigation and post-loan tracking link.

Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate

In terms of the RMB exchange rate, the People's Bank of China also proposed to deepen the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to adhere to the concept of "risk neutrality", comprehensively implement policies, correct deviations, stabilize expectations, resolutely correct unilateral and pro-cyclical behaviors, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

In the past few days, the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated slightly, once falling below the 7.3 mark, which has caused market concern. As of the close of trading on September 9, the onshore yuan was trading at 27.7 against the dollar, down 3088 basis points from the previous session. However, Zhou Maohua said that although the US dollar has recently strengthened due to the pressure on the supply of US bonds and the decline in the European economy, which has caused certain disturbances to the RMB, from the perspective of internal and external environmental trends, it continues to be optimistic about the trend of the RMB during the year.

Zhou Maohua added that recent data show that the momentum of domestic economic recovery has been enhanced, foreign trade is resilient, cross-border capital liquidity is two-way and orderly, the balance of international payments is basically balanced, and the RMB exchange rate is supported by solid fundamentals. At the same time, in recent months, the RMB has fluctuated sharply, and the domestic and external negative factors have been fully priced, and the RMB has undergone many tests of severe internal and external situations, the market has accelerated its maturity, and the flexibility of the RMB has been significantly enhanced.

Pang also believes that the recent phased pressure on the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate is mainly due to the passive depreciation in the context of the strengthening of the US dollar index and the expected widening of the interest rate differential between China and the United States. However, the relevant departments have adopted policy measures such as introducing counter-cyclical factors, raising macro-prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing, issuing offshore central notes and government bonds, and lowering the reserve ratio of foreign exchange deposits, strengthening the effective management and reasonable guidance of market expectations, and the tool options retained in the future policy toolbox are still relatively sufficient.

Pang reminded that, as mentioned by the People's Bank of China, under the condition that the flexibility and magnitude of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate increase, market entities should establish the concept of "risk neutrality" of the exchange rate, avoid the "foreign exchange speculation" behavior that deviates from the risk neutrality, adhere to steady operation, strengthen risk prevention awareness and ability, do a good job in risk assessment, reasonably prudent transactions, appropriately hedge exchange rate exposure and control currency mismatches, and reasonably arrange the currency structure of assets and liabilities.

Looking forward to the future, Pang Ming expects that China will continue to promote the construction of a multi-level exchange rate market and a foreign trade market system, improve and expand the depth and breadth of the foreign exchange market, establish and improve the power and mechanism for correcting the RMB exchange rate, and give play to the role of exchange rate adjustment macroeconomics and exchange rate revenue and payment stabilizer.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Sihong Dong Hanxuan

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When the interest rate adjustment of existing housing loans is carried out: the "second set to the first set" is opened

Compared with the first home loan interest rate adjustment by banks, some borrowers are more concerned about how to operate the "second set to the first set". On September 9, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily noted that in order to facilitate borrowers to apply, a number of banks have issued "second set to first set" interest rate adjustment application guidelines or operation strategies, the "second set to the first set" certification materials list usually includes marital status certificate, real estate inquiry certificate, personal credit and other content, due to different regions, local banks require different materials to submit. A number of banks said that borrowers who have been identified as eligible will make batch interest rate adjustments for approved businesses on October 27.

Publish how-to guidelines

When the reduction of the interest rate of the existing mortgage is in progress, compared with the batch reduction of the interest rate of the existing first home loan, some borrowers are more concerned about how to apply for the adjustment of the mortgage interest rate issued according to the second set of mortgages issued at the time of purchase, and the mortgage interest rate that now meets the standard of the first home.

On September 9, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily noted that a number of banks have issued guidelines for applying for interest rate adjustments for the "second set to the first set". Taking ICBC as an example, according to incomplete statistics from a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, the bank issued operational guidelines for the submission of "second set to first set" interest rate adjustment materials in Guangdong, Dalian, Shanxi, Zhoukou, Inner Mongolia, Wuxi and other places.

The list of supporting materials for "second to first" usually includes proof of marital status, real estate inquiry certificate, etc., and the materials submitted by different branches vary depending on the region. For divorced borrowers, ICBC Dalian Branch requires divorce certificate, single certificate, and divorce agreement; In the real estate inquiry certificate, the branch requires that all family members should provide a real estate inquiry certificate within seven days in the whole area of Dalian (family members include themselves and their spouses, and minor children who own real estate must also provide real estate inquiry certificates).

A number of banks said that for the "second set to the first set" mortgage interest rate adjustment, borrowers need to take the initiative to apply to the bank, and if it is found to be qualified, the approved business will be subject to batch interest rate adjustment on October 10.

Existing borrowers have successfully applied

According to the regulations, borrowers who "transfer the second set to the first set" can submit materials online or go to the offline branches of banks.

Li Jiujie (pseudonym) in Zhejiang also successfully submitted an application for "second set to first set" online. "It only took one day from the submission of the application to the approval, and the reduced interest rate of the existing mortgage was 4.3%, which will take effect next month." Li Jiujie said.

Borrowers who were previously identified as "second homes" and are now "first homes" have become beneficiaries of this round of interest rate cuts for existing mortgages. In terms of the application process, each bank has also set up a special guidance channel for the "second set to the first set". CCB has launched the "Second Set of Application Review Function" on the mobile banking app, "CCB Smart Personal Loan" mini program and other channels, and borrowers can click "Existing Housing Loan Interest Rate Adjustment" - "Apply for Review" and select the review type "First Set and Non-First Set Recognition Results".

Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, said that for borrowers, the reduction of the interest rate of existing housing loans substantially reduces the pressure of loan repayment and reduces the financial burden of residents, which is a major benefit, which can free up more funds for other consumption, improve capital liquidity, and provide residents with more opportunities to choose to buy other properties.

A package of favorable policies "on the way"

It is estimated that the adjustment of the interest rate of the first home loan will benefit about 4000 million households and hundreds of millions of residents. From the perspective of magnitude, the average reduction in the interest rate of the first home loan in stock is about 80 basis points. Taking a stock mortgage of 100 million yuan, 25 years and original interest rate of 5.1% as an example, assuming that the mortgage interest rate is reduced to 4.3%, the borrower's repayment expenses can be saved by more than 5000,<> yuan per year.

On September 9, according to the official website of the People's Bank of China, the third quarter meeting of the People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee in 27 was held in Beijing on September 2023. The meeting pointed out that the implementation of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the policy of the interest rate of the newly issued first home loan, the down payment ratio and the lower limit of the interest rate of the second home loan, and the promotion of the reduction of the interest rate of the existing first home loan have been effective.

In Chen Xiao's view, reducing the down payment ratio and the lower limit of the second-hand mortgage interest rate will become a key direction for the next policy relaxation, in the previous "recognize the house without recognizing the loan" and other policies have landed, the first home qualification has been relaxed, short-term stimulated a wave of demand into the market, but the continued recovery of the market still needs more policy support, the reduction of the down payment ratio and the second home loan interest rate is an important part. It is expected that after the implementation of this policy, combined with the combination of "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" to form a combination to lower the entry threshold of improvement groups, the market is expected to usher in a more obvious recovery, especially for first-tier and second-tier cities.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Song Yitong