At the time when the landing of "Recognizing Housing Without Recognizing Loans" is about to reach the full moon and the "Golden Nine" is coming to an end, the backlog of demand stimulated by the New Deal has begun to cool. A recent investigation by a reporter from Beijing Business Daily found that at the data level, in the past four weeks after the "house recognition without loan" new policy, a total of 5117,2473 sets of new houses were transacted in Beijing, of which the highest transaction in a single week was 39,2 sets, and the average weekly transaction after the new policy was compared with the first four weeks of the new policy, up 50.<>% year-on-year. However, with the concentrated release of the backlog of demand in the early stage, some projects have sold hundreds of sets a week, to the number of project visits has been cut by <>%, and the once explosive non-closing sales office has almost disappeared, and the heat brought by the new policy is receding.

The first half of the week 100 sets

50% cut in the second half of the visit

"Recognizing houses but not loans" has made the "Golden Nine" of Beijing's property market a good start. In September, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily interviewed the person in charge of a number of new housing projects in Beijing and the property consultants, all of whom said that "recognizing houses without recognizing loans" has brought some stimulus to the Beijing property market, especially for the new housing market, and in the first two weeks of September, the number of project visits and transactions have doubled. "Selling hundreds of units a week, which was unimaginable before the New Deal."

However, with the concentrated release of the previous backlog of demand, the market has also begun to show new changes. "In the first half of the month, the project promoted 'wind and fire', a lively atmosphere; the second half of the month cannot be described as deserted, but there is indeed a weakening of the number of visits. Summing up the performance in September, there are clear signs of stagnation at the visiting end. Li Yong, the head of a leading real estate enterprise in Beijing, who has eight years of experience, described the recent changes in the Beijing property market.

"The number of visits is about 50% less than the high point." Zhao Yi, head of project marketing at a central enterprise, gave a more accurate "gap" before and after. Zhao Yi said that compared with the past weekend, it was 50% less than the previous high, and although the short-term heat of the market faded expected, it was still difficult to accept for a while. "We expected the heat to continue at least until after the National Day holiday, but we didn't expect it to go so early."

In response to the fading of the popularity of visits, the above-mentioned real estate project leaders gave a fairly consistent answer. "On the one hand, after the implementation of the new policy, especially in the first week of landing, it has brought a very high transaction tide, mainly because the backlog of wait-and-see demand for housing in the early stage has begun to be released; On the other hand, the current round of market heat is mainly supported by improving customer groups, but the release of demand for improving customer groups is also limited, that is, the circulation of second-hand house replacement. Many intending buyers are stuck on the road to 'sell one, buy one', so the market heat has not been maintained. ”

The sales office that was not closed disappeared

One detail can also reflect the current changes in Beijing's property market: the sales office that is not closed has basically disappeared. The Beijing Business Daily reporter learned during the visit that after the introduction of the new policy of "recognizing houses but not recognizing loans", a large number of short-term buyers poured into the sales office, and a number of new housing projects also took the opportunity to open the 24-hour "non-closing" mode, but as the short-term heat subsided, the "non-closed" sales office basically came to an end. "It's not that I don't want to continue, but there aren't so many buyers rushing to the 'night club', and at the beginning of the month because of the trouble of working overtime every day, now I am a little uncomfortable." Li Yong said.

Although the number of visits has a downward trend, the transaction volume of the vast majority of real estate projects is significantly higher than before the New Deal. "After the introduction of the new policy, it has brought an obvious change, visiting customers is more accurate, but there are not so many people, and the current project transaction conversion rate is still at a high level, which proves that market confidence has been boosted to a greater extent."

The data also confirmed Li Yong's view. Zhuge housing data shows that in the past four weeks after the new policy, a total of 5117,2473 sets of new houses were transacted in Beijing, of which the highest transaction in a single week was 39,2 sets, and the average weekly transaction after the new policy was compared with the first four weeks of the new deal, up <>.<>% year-on-year.

"The longer the holiday, the longer the holiday,

The fewer people come to see the property"

Although the transaction data has a good performance, many interviewed new housing project leaders and property consultants said that they are not optimistic about the next "silver ten".

"At the peak of the beginning of September, our sales performance was quite good, but the attitude expressed by the current market can be said to be the consumption of backlog demand, which can also be understood as overdrawing subsequent purchasing power in advance." A central enterprise project property consultant told the Beijing Business Daily reporter that it is now possible to expect another wave of peaks during the "Eleventh" long holiday, but according to the experience of previous years, the number of visits to the sales office during the "Eleventh" holiday will not increase too much. "Even if the number of visits increases, it will ultimately depend on the 'conversion rate', and the recent project 'conversion rate' has begun to decline, and the October transaction remains to be seen."

"The longer the holiday, the fewer people come to see the property." Zhao Yi bluntly said that although the "Eleventh" long holiday gives buyers more time to view and choose houses, and major real estate companies will simultaneously launch some preferential activities to cooperate with marketing, in most cases it is not ideal. Last year, because of the market downturn, the "golden nine silver ten" of Beijing's property market basically disappeared, and although there is a blessing of "recognizing houses but not recognizing loans" this year, it is clear that this momentum has not been carried through to October.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that a number of real estate market policies such as "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" have stimulated the market, but it can be seen that the sales price of the overall market has not risen significantly, and even some projects have been lowered. This gives buyers an expectation, and there may be a "downward revision" later. Therefore, even if many buyers have the need to buy a house and change a house, as long as it is not particularly urgent, they are more willing to wait and see, rather than choose to start now. "More and more rational home buyers are a new change in the market."

As the real estate market enters a period of deep adjustment, it is difficult to reproduce the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten" unique house grabbing, second light, and sold out, but many projects still hope that the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" will fight a turnaround battle. The reporter of Beijing Business Daily learned during the on-site visit that some project real estate projects have begun to prepare for the "Eleventh" long holiday preferential activities, "one price good house extra 9.9% off", "watch live broadcast to enjoy 1% exclusive discount", "buy a house exclusive multiple gifts"...

Home buyers are waiting for further policy optimization

When market demand is rapidly released in a short period of time, where the next wave of purchasing power comes from has become a problem that Li Yong and others are anxious about.

According to Li Yong, many customers have recently begun to express their emotions of waiting for the easing of purchase restrictions, especially after Guangzhou, which is also a first-tier city, took the lead in "starting", which also amplified this sentiment.

On September 9, Guangzhou issued a new policy for buying houses. From the perspective of policy changes, two points are mainly involved: among them, the administrative areas of purchase restrictions have been adjusted, that is, the scope of non-restricted purchase areas has been expanded, and the three districts of Panyu, Huangpu and Huadu have been included in non-restricted purchase areas, which makes the subsequent purchase of houses in such areas without restrictions on purchases, which increases the enthusiasm of buying houses in such areas. In addition, the policy for foreigners to buy houses has been further relaxed, from the past 20 years of social security to 5 years, which has significantly reduced the time and waiting costs for foreigners to buy houses in Guangzhou.

"It's not just home buyers, we're also waiting for further policies." Li Yong said frankly that after the release of demand brought by "recognizing housing without recognizing loans", the handover of "kinetic energy" in the real estate market is not clear at present, and the transaction cycle of "one sale and one buy" is long, and it is impossible to form a concentrated explosive force in the short term. The current market, like pedestrians crossing traffic lights, only to go a wave when they have enough, the policy is relaxed step by step, and demand is released little by little. "And even if there are policy benefits, some old and difficult projects still cannot be cleared, which is the most real market."

The Beijing Business Daily reporter also learned that the current differentiation between different urban areas, plates and projects in Beijing is becoming increasingly serious, the central urban area is more popular than the far suburbs, and the hot real estate is more transacted than the general real estate. Some projects with good surrounding supporting facilities have significantly increased their transaction volume due to the impact of policies, but the location is relatively remote and the surrounding supporting facilities have not yet been developed, although the popularity has rebounded, but the transaction volume has not improved significantly.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Wang Yinhao