Warmer! What signal does the central bank release key data?

China News Network Beijing, September 9 Topic: Warming up! What signal does the central bank release key data?

Reporter Wang Enbo

Various statistics reflecting the trend of economic operation in August have been released. According to the latest disclosure by the central bank, in August, the scale of social financing increased by 8.8 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 3.12 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the balance of RMB loans was 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.232% year-on-year.

The analysis believes that the overall growth rate of loans is stable, the marginal recovery, and financial support for the real economy is continuing to exert force, releasing three major signals.

——Credit momentum remains strong after short-term fluctuations

With the recent intensive introduction of policies, after the weak financial data in July, the industry generally believes that August may usher in a recovery. The latest data are consistent with this judgement.

According to the central bank, RMB loans increased by 8.1 trillion yuan in August, an increase of 36.868 billion yuan year-on-year. Although the increase is not "dazzling", it is not easy to achieve on the basis of the peak that has reached the same period in history last year. At the same time, the increase in loans in August increased by more than 8 trillion yuan compared with July, which was significantly stronger than the seasonal pattern. At the same time, the policy effect is visible, and it also reflects market expectations and sentiment improvement.

Overall, broad money (M8) balances rose 2.10% year-on-year at the end of August and remained at a high level. In the first eight months of this year, RMB loans increased by 6.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.44 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the credit supply was still relatively sufficient, to some extent easing the previous market concerns about the fluctuation of credit data in July.

In fact, looking back, it is not practical to blindly pursue a year-on-year increase in credit in a single month.

Some senior experts in the industry explained the loan growth to the China News Service Guois Express using "climbing", "if you run too fast in front, you need a certain amount of respite time to recover your strength and continue to climb up", and the same is true for credit growth.

On the one hand, it is necessary to allow enough time to digest the previous increment; On the other hand, the higher up it will inevitably be "steep and difficult", and it is necessary to "fast and steady hooves" and maintain an orderly rhythm in order to continue to "climb the peak". Looking back at the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 5.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP, and the money supply with a year-on-year increase of 8.10% at the end of August was not slow, and the continuous growth of credit or the continuous accumulation of debt was not conducive to economic restructuring and optimization, and it was easy to bury hidden dangers for financial risks.

It should also be noted that unlike fiscal expenditure, money does not disappear after it is released, but will form stock accumulation and continue to play a role in economic operation. At present, the existing monetary credit pool is already not small, and in the case of stable increments, we should pay more attention to how the huge existing loans play a role.

From this perspective, there are many highlights this year. For example, in terms of the interest rate of existing loans, LPR has continued to decline since the beginning of this year, not only new loans can enjoy policy dividends, but also the cost of funds for existing loans and renewal loans will be reduced.

——Precise "shots" to focus on key areas

The total amount of credit has grown steadily, and the specific flow has become another major attraction. From the analysis of the credit structure, resources are flowing to those entities that are more in demand and more dynamic.

First, "heal" for private small and micro enterprises.

Many private small and micro enterprises are still lacking in vitality after successfully crossing the "life and death line" of the epidemic and need "blood transfusion" support. In the past August, the central bank held a special meeting to promote the development of financial support for private enterprises, and the degree of attention was highlighted. For a period of time, from vigorously promoting the first lenders of small and micro enterprises, as well as the business of renewing loans without repayment, and repaying as they go, to the implementation of inclusive small and micro loan support tools and small re-loans to support agriculture and support, the central bank's many deployments have helped to reduce the burden and alleviate difficulties for private small and micro enterprises.

Second, increase "internal strength" for economic recovery.

The external environment is still complex and severe, and the internal vitality of key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, green and low-carbon, and manufacturing has become a key force for economic recovery. To meet these development needs, the central bank has launched debt financing tools such as innovation and entrepreneurship financial bonds and science and technology innovation notes to support technology enterprises and leading manufacturing enterprises, and clarified that the existing funds of scientific and technological innovation reloans can be extended to play a role; Carbon emission reduction support tools have been extended to some foreign banks and local corporate banks. These measures are all directed at supporting structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading.

The figures clearly reflect these trends. From January to July, loans to private enterprises increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9 trillion yuan year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprise loans was higher than 1% for four consecutive years and higher than 8% for three consecutive years, respectively. Two-thirds of green loans are invested in projects with carbon reduction benefits.

The time has entered September, and the third quarter economic examination is approaching the "handing over of the papers". The industry expects that the next step of monetary policy structure support is expected to focus more on the key points and pay attention to "accurate shots".

People close to the regulator told China News Agency that the total amount of financial support for the real economy is sufficient, and the use of structural tools in the future should not only consider the prominent structural contradictions in economic operation, but also weigh the willingness and ability of financial institutions to provide financial services in specific fields, and solve the problem of not daring to lend.

——The effect of "combination punches" continues to appear

At present, the economic recovery is still "developing in waves, zigzagging forward", not only monetary policy, but also all parties are eager to provide strong support from policy.

Preferential policies for stamp duty and individual income tax have been introduced successively, policy interest rates have continued to decline, and real estate policies have been adjusted and optimized in a timely manner... In response to the above appeals and expectations, since August, all departments have made concerted efforts to significantly increase support for the real economy, and gave a macro policy "combination fist" that meets market expectations.

This set of "combination punches" not only focuses on "strength" and "strength", but also pays attention to the systematic, holistic and coordinated nature of the moves.

It is not difficult to see in a detailed dismantling of a series of measures, which focus on making good use of policy space, identifying the direction of strength, and paying attention to consolidating the foundation and cultivating yuan, involving many fields such as finance and taxation, real estate, monetary policy, etc., with wide benefits, strong sustainability, direct results, and high market recognition, which can effectively and directly reach entities to help corporate residents reduce their burden and increase income.

Taking the central bank as an example, there are successive moves to protect the economy. Since the beginning of this year, one RRR cut, two interest rate cuts, and three real estate financial policies (reducing the down payment ratio, the interest rate of the second house, and the interest rate of the existing housing loan), the policy has been introduced in front of the market curve, the counter-cyclical adjustment has increased, and the financial data is obviously ahead of the economic data.

Positive changes are already emerging. The manufacturing PMI continued to pick up in August, the decline in imports and exports converged significantly, the release of tourism consumption accelerated, new home sales and "Golden Nine Silver Ten" expectations improved significantly in September, and major stock indexes also rose from before the implementation of the policy on August 8.

Some analysts pointed out that the current loan trend is better and the basic economic orientation is good, and the policy is timely and powerful. As the policy continues to make efforts in the field of "transforming the mode, adjusting the structure, and increasing kinetic energy", the positive effect will be further reflected in the future.