China News Network, September 9 (Zhongxin Financial Reporter Zuo Yukun) Guangzhou, a first-tier city that has shown a positive performance in this round of property market regulation, once again led the introduction of new favorable new policies.

Recently, the lower bound of the interest rate of the first commercial loan in Guangzhou has broken through the loan market quotation rate (LPR), falling to LPR minus 10 basis points (BP), making Guangzhou the first first-tier city to break the lower limit of LPR. After being the first to introduce the policy of "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans" in first-tier cities, Guangzhou continued to make efforts to adjust the real estate policy. What is the market response today?

Infographic: Buildings in the urban area. Photo by China News Agency reporter Wang Dongming

The first in first-tier cities, Guangzhou has successively adjusted its housing loan policy

According to Guangzhou Daily, the latest policy in Guangzhou is: the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first home is not less than 30%, and the lower limit of interest rate is LPR minus 10 basis points; The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for two homes is not less than 40%, and the lower limit of interest rate is LPR plus 30 basis points; In Guangzhou, there are 2 suites and more than 2 sets, and the distribution will be suspended.

The new policy will be implemented from September 9, and if the sales contract or real estate sales contract is signed online before September 8 (excluding September 9), it shall be implemented in accordance with the original provisions.

This policy is based on the Notice on Adjusting and Optimizing Differentiated Housing Credit Policies issued by the State Financial Regulatory Administration on August 8 by People's Bank of China and the State Financial Regulatory Administration, which stipulates that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for first and second homes is unified to not less than 31% and 20%. In terms of interest rate, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for the first set of commercial personal housing loans is implemented in accordance with the current regulations, that is, not less than the corresponding term LPR minus 30 basis points; The lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for two sets of housing is adjusted to not less than the corresponding term LPR plus 20 basis points.

Market participants said that although the down payment ratio of the first home loan in Guangzhou has not been reduced to 20% expected by the market, it is still 30%. However, the minimum down payment ratio for buying a second home was reduced to 40%, which exceeded market expectations, and the previous down payment ratio in Guangzhou was 50% (ordinary commercial housing) or 70% (non-ordinary commercial housing).

"Compared with the policy before the adjustment, the adjusted down payment ratio of the second home loan has been significantly reduced, and the down payment ratio has decreased by 60% if there is a house but no loan or the loan has been settled; If you have a home but have not paid off the loan, the down payment ratio has dropped by <>%. At the same time, the loan interest rate has also decreased significantly compared with the previous LPR plus <> basis points. Chen Xueqiang, research director of the Guangzhou branch of the Middle Index Research Institute, explained.

"The reduction of the down payment ratio and interest rate of the second home loan is mainly aimed at the improvement people who own a house in Guangzhou and have a certain ability to pay, without the need to replace it through 'sell one buy one', and it is also conducive to accelerating the release of demand for second home improvement." Chen Xueqiang believes that unlike the previous "recognize a house but not a loan" policy, the implementation policy is mainly aimed at the second home buyers, which greatly reduces the threshold and cost of buying a second home.

At the end of August, the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government issued the Notice on Optimizing the Identification Standards for the Number of Housing Units in Personal Housing Loans in the City, which is the first time that the policy of "recognizing housing but not recognizing loans" has been implemented in first-tier cities, and is considered to be creating momentum for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" energy storage of Guangzhou's property market.

Data map: Streets of Guangzhou. Photo by Wang Jian

Can "Combination Fist" help "Golden Nine Silver Ten"?

"On September 9-2, the new policy was just announced, but the weather was not very good, so the number of people who came to see the property did not increase significantly, and last weekend was a steady increase. However, there are obviously more online and telephone consultations, most of them just need to change houses, but the proportion of real implementation to the transaction is not large, and the price increase has not yet been thought of. A real estate agent in Guangzhou told reporters.

Ms. Huang, a citizen of Guangzhou, just recently settled on a house. "Family and friends said that they felt that the house price would drop a little and were not in a hurry to make a move. But we belong to the school district house that we just need to buy a house, and our children will go to school next year. Ms. Huang said that the biggest feeling after buying a house is that school district houses are still very sought-after, especially good school districts in Yuexiu District and Haizhu District, and they don't worry about selling at all.

But as a seller, Guangzhou citizen Miss Lin is much more entangled. "We want to sell the current house and buy another one, which is an improvement replacement. The house has been hanging for half a year, and it has dropped by almost 200,000 yuan, and it has not been sold. Miss Lin said that there are some owners in their community who are not particularly good, and may directly reduce the price by 400,000 yuan or 500,000 yuan to list, and buyers will also hope to use this low price to buy a good floor, and the owner is not selling or in a hurry, because everyone is still a wait-and-see mentality.

"Wait and see" and "not in a hurry" seem to be the common mentality of many Guangzhou buyers in recent days. Data monitoring from the China Index Research Institute shows that the transaction of new houses in Guangzhou has continued to decline for four consecutive months since April this year, and the transaction of new houses in August 4 was 4,2023 square meters, down 8.50% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year, and the current market transaction has been at a historical low level.

How much incentive can the continuous introduction of new policies bring to the Guangzhou property market?

Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, believes that Guangzhou Zengcheng, Conghua, Huadu, Baiyun non-core areas and other areas have a large amount of inventory, basically the first set of just-needed real estate areas, and buyers of real estate in these areas will benefit from the preferential interest rate of the first home in Guangzhou LPR minus 10 basis points, which will help the property market in these areas to further digest the inventory.

"This is first of all conducive to the demand for house replacement, including the demand for 'selling one to buy one', especially the demand for second homes, including buying houses for parents and children, and investment demand, in line with the new situation of the new housing market focusing on improvement and large apartments." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, said that the small apartment and low total price housing released by the demand for housing replacement can also drive people who just need to enter the market, especially people who are eager to get on the bus.

"However, the year-end market repair brought about by this favorable policy, and the impulse response may weaken at the end of the year or even in November." Whether the property market can stabilize in the future depends on the repair of fundamentals. Li Yujia thought.

Chen Xueqiang believes that with the implementation of the first housing "recognize the house without recognizing the loan" and the second housing down payment ratio and interest rate significantly reduced, the short-term will significantly boost the confidence of the property market, and at the same time, the rigidity of the beneficiaries and the improvement of the population will also accelerate the pace of entering the market. (End)