Inflationary pressures in the Swedish economy have more than halved since their peak in December 2022, TT reports. On the other hand, inflation in October appears to have rebounded, which could lead to another interest rate hike by the Riksbank in November.
Prices for energy, food and services need to fall for inflation to curb. According to the Riksbank's forecast, the policy rate will remain around the current level for about two years, which would mean variable mortgage rates of around 5 per cent on average. However, several analysts believe that cuts will be made more quickly than that.
SBAB's Chief Economist Robert Boije believes that the Riksbank will cut its policy rate as early as the middle of next year and that variable mortgage rates will be around 3.5 per cent two years ahead. Significantly higher than just a few years ago.
"It is important not to be lulled into the hope that interest rates will go back down to very low levels, we will definitely not see levels as low as in recent years.
Buffer needed
Handelsbanken's Chief Economist Christina Nyman is of the same opinion, she believes that the Riksbank will make its first cut in September next year, with slow interest rate cuts thereafter. Handelsbanken believes that the policy rate will end up at between 2 and 2.5 per cent in a few years' time, which means mortgage rates of between 3.5 and 4 per cent on average.
"I think you should make sure that you have margins and a buffer and don't put yourself in a difficult situation based on anticipating rapidly falling interest rates," says Christina Nyman as advice to households with mortgages.
Could take until 2025
Alexandra Stråberg, chief economist at Länsförsäkringar, believes that major interest rate cuts by the Riksbank will not come until 2025.
"But this assumes that nothing dramatic happens, i.e. that growth does not decrease dramatically.